[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and W Caribbean: A low
pressure system that moved into northern Central America has
weakened over the past several hours. However, clusters of showers
and thunderstorms persist over much of Nicaragua and the western
Caribbean waters W of 82W, and may increase over Honduras,
Guatemala and El Salvador later today. This rainfall could produce
flash flooding, along with mudslides in higher terrain areas.
Refer to the local weather services for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

An ITCZ extends westward from west of Sierra Leone near 08N15W
to 08N46W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm on
either side of the boundary.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extending southward from a 1022 mb high
over Mississippi is dominating much of the Gulf. Fresh to locally
strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are present at the south-
central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and eastern Bay of
Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are found
across the eastern, central and north-central Gulf, including the
Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds and seas at 3
to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient across the southern
half of the basin will support moderate to fresh winds S of 25N
through tonight. Seas to 9 ft across the Yucatan Channel will
gradually subside today. Relatively tranquil marine conditions are
expected from Mon on as high pressure remains over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about heavy rains
impacting the western Caribbean and central America.

An upper-level trough extends northeastward from near the ABC
Islands to beyond the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present near the ABC Islands and
Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 6
to 8 ft exist across the northwestern, west-central and north-
central basin. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in
moderate NE swell are evident at the southwestern basin. Gentle to
moderate E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, the active weather is expected to persist
across the western Caribbean through today. Fresh northeast winds
and rough seas associated with a tight pressure gradient across
the western Caribbean will weaken tonight. Easterly trade winds
will return to the basin by midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N75W to
27N80W. A 1013 mb low is analyzed near 30N73W, with trough
extending from the low to 23N76W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near these features north of 25N west
of 63W. A couple of surface troughs are aided by divergent upper-
level winds to generate scattered moderate convection from 10N to
26N between 47W and 60W. An upper-level low near 23N29W is
triggering scattered showers from 17N to 24N between 25W and 31W.

Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted
north of 27N and W of 77W. Moderate to fresh NNE to E winds and 8
to 10 ft seas in large mixed swells are evident north of 26N
between the Africa coast and 54W. An area of fresh NE winds and
seas to 10 ft is noted from 10N to 25N and E of 31W. Light to
gentle SE and monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate
mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh northeast winds and large NE
swell prevail today behind the front across the offshore waters of
NE Florida and Georgia where seas are interacting with the
Gulfstream. Expect winds and seas to diminish this evening.
Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over the region Tue
through Thu and freshen trade winds to the S of 24N.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net