[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over Central America: Satellite imagery and
surface observations indicate that the low pressure system
(Invest AL97) has moved inland near the Costa Rica-Nicaragua
border. A surface trough reaches northward from AL97 to near
20N85W. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring from northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
northward across the Gulf of Honduras to near 20N. These showers
and thunderstorms should spread westward over Belize and the
interior of Honduras and Nicaragua later today and tonight.
Development of this system appears unlikely as it is over land but
regardless of development, Heavy rainfall from strong
thunderstorms could produce flash flooding, and mudslides in
mountainous terrains. For additional information about this
system, see forecast products issued by your local meteorological
service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

An ITCZ extends westward from west of Sierra Leone near 08N15W
across 05N30W to 09N48W. Scattered to numerous moderate with
isolated strong convection is seen up to 130 nm north, and 60 nm
south of the ITCZ. A monsoon trough remains mostly over
continental Africa.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Panama and northwestern
Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front across the Florida Straits and
Yucatan Channel is maintaining widely scattered showers in both
areas. A surface trough is causing similar conditions at the
western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad
surface ridge extending southward from a 1021 mb high over
Mississippi is dominating much of the Gulf. Fresh to locally
strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are present at the south-
central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and eastern Bay of
Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are found
across the eastern, central and north-central Gulf, including the
Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds and seas at 3
to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the stationary
front and surface ridge will keep strong NE winds and rough seas
over the south-central and southeastern Gulf. In particular, seas
are even rougher at the Straits of Florida due to interaction
with the Florida Current. Winds will begin to diminish early Sun
as high pressure begins to shift eastward and weaken through
early next week. Seas across the southeastern Gulf and Straits of
Florida will gradually subside through Sun. Relatively tranquil
marine conditions are expected from Mon well into next week as
high pressure remains over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about heavy rains related
to Invest AL97 impacting the western Caribbean Basin and central
America.

An upper-level trough extends northeastward from near the ABC
Islands to beyond the Leeward Islands. Widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are present near the ABC Islands and
Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 6
to 8 ft exist across the northwestern, west-central and north-
central basin. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in
moderate NE swell are evident at the southwestern basin. Gentle to
moderate E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, active weather is expected to persist across
the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. A stationary front over western
Cuba and the Yucatan Channel will weaken tonight. Fresh to strong
NE winds and rough seas associated with the front and surface
trough mentioned in the Special Features section will prevail in
the northwestern basin and Yucatan Channel through Sun night.
Easterly trade winds will return to the basin on Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A newly formed cold front curves southwestward from a 1013 mb low
southeast of South Carolina across 31N76W to Fort Pierce, Florida.
A dissipating stationary front extends southwestward from a 1013
mb low northeast of the northwest Bahamas at 29N75W to the Florida
Straits. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring near these features north of 25N west of 68W. A couple
of surface troughs are aided by divergent upper-level winds to
generate scattered moderate convection from 10N to 26N between 45W
and 57W. An upper-level low near 22N31W is triggering widely
scattered moderate convection from 17N to 25N between 26W and 36W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted
north of 27N west of 77W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh
NNE to E winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in large mixed swells are
evident north of 10N between the Africa coast and 77W/Lesser
Antilles, including waters near the Canary and Cabo Verde
Islands. Light to gentle with locally moderate SE and monsoonal
winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate mixed swells prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will weaken over the northwest Bahamas offshore waters through
Sun, then shift eastward as a weak trough through mid week. Fresh
to strong NE winds and large NE swell prevail across the waters
offshore of northeast Florida and Georgia where seas are
interacting with the Gulfstream. Expect winds and seas north of
the front to begin to diminish tonight. Relatively weak high
pressure will settle in over the region Tue through Thu and
freshen trade winds to the south of 24N.

$$

Chan
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