[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from just southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west around 15
kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 09N
between 21W and 30W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 14N south-
southwestward to French Guiana, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 12N
between 51W and 54W, and near the Suriname coast.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from Haiti southward to
near the Venezuela-Colombia border, and moving west around 10 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over
Haiti. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the Venezuela-Colombia
border.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
just north of Nouakchott, then curves southwestward across 10N23W
to 08N35W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of
the trough near the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast, and near the trough
from 06N to 09N between 30W and 35W. An ITCZ continues westward
from 08N35W through 08N45W to 10N51W, then resumes from 10N54W to
near the Venezuela-Guyana border at 08N59W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is evident along either side of the first
ITCZ segment up to 130 nm, and the second ITCZ segment up to 70
nm.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A diurnal surface trough is producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the central and eastern Bay of Campeche.
Another surface trough is causing similar conditions near the
southwest coast of Florida, including the Florida Keys. Otherwise,
a modest 1014 mb high over the north-central Gulf is dominating
much of the region. Moderate with locally fresh return flow and
seas of 3 to 5 ft are present across the western Gulf, including
the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high will prevail through the weekend,
supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow west of 90W and
light to gentle winds east of 90W. Otherwise, moderate to locally
fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula
each night into Sat as the diurnal trough develops each evening
and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Mid-Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from the eastern
Atlantic to near Leeward Islands. Convergent southeasterly winds
near the ridge axis are generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near and south of Puerto Rico. Aided by a weak
upper-level trough over the northwestern basin, convergent trades
are triggering isolated thunderstorms near the southern coast of
Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
above for additional weather in the basin.

Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft exist at the
south-central basin, north of Colombia. Gentle with locally
moderate ENE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are evident for the
northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE winds with 4 to 5 ft
seas are found at the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh E to
ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and
eastern basin will increase to between fresh and strong Mon and
Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
waters will expand in coverage through Mon night. Gentle to
moderate trades will prevail elsewhere during the forecast
period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from off the Carolina
coast across 31N76W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up to its south
from the northwest Bahamas northeastward to 31N74W. Father east, a
surface trough reaches northeastward from 26N71W to beyond 31N at
62W. Convergent southerly winds feeding toward this feature are
coupling with divergent flow aloft to trigger widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 19N between 55W and
70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong southerly winds and seas of
6 to 8 ft are seen north of 20N between 55W and 65W. Otherwise
north of 20N, the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is supporting light to
gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas between 35W and the Florida-
Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, Moderate to fresh with
locally strong NNE trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft dominate north of
20N between the Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic,
moderate to fresh NE to ESE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted
from 09N to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser
Antilles. Gentle with locally moderate southerly and monsoonal
winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft seas in moderately southerly swell
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough south and
southwest of Bermuda will move northward, with the possibility of
a low pressure center developing along it. Fresh to strong SE to
S winds in the vicinity of this feature will shift north of the
area Fri. East of 65W, gentle to moderate winds will prevail while
light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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