[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292245
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jun 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W from 02N to 15N near
the Cabo Verde Islands, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is evident near the tropical wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 51W from 14N49W to
03N51W, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed along the wave axis near 07N.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 72W between Haiti and
northeast Colombia, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is evident over the water near the tropical wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to 10N23W to 09N30W. The ITCZ continues from 09N30W to
09N48W, and from 08N54W. Scattered moderate convection is evident
within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 32W and 34W, and between 41W and
42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A few showers and thunderstorms are noted over the western Gulf
near 21N95W, along a surface trough that reaches from 23N94W to
near Poza Rica, Mexico. A weak ridge extends across the northern
Gulf, anchored by 1016 mb high pressure near 28N92W. Gentle to
moderate breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident over the southwest
Gulf, with light breezes and slight 1 to 3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail through the
weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough
develops each evening and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is active south of the Mona
Passage, on the southeast side of a mid to upper trough that
extends along 70W through Hispaniola. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are evident west of 80W. The gradient between
subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean
is supporting fresh ESE winds in the eastern Caribbean, moderate
E winds in the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate E winds
in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft in the eastern and SW
Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Mon and Mon night.
Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central waters will
expand in coverage through Mon night. Gentle to moderate trade
winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from the Carolina coast to near Cape
Canaveral, Florida. Farther east, a surface trough extends from
29N63W to 24N71W. This feature, combined with an upper level
trough centered near 70W, is supporting scattered moderate
convection from 25N to 28N between 65W and 69W. Winds are gentle
west of 70W, increasing to fresh to strong SE-S winds from 55W to
65W. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 72W, 4-6 ft from 65W to 72W, and 6-8
ft from 65W to 57W.

Farther east, a weak pressure gradient dominates the central
Atlantic with gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas. The gradient
increases in the eastern Atlantic, with moderate to fresh NE winds
and 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough located SSE of
Bermuda will move northward, with the possibility of low pressure
developing along the trough. Fresh to strong southeast to south
winds in the vicinity of the trough will movie north of the area
Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail east of 65W
with light to gentle winds elsewhere.

$$
Christensen
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