[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23W from 02N to
15N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed
from 05N to 11N between 19W and 28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 14N49W to 03N51W,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 11N between 44W and 54W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 71W from 20N to
07N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are present east of the wave near Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands. This activity is being enhanced by an
upper-level trough roughly along 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Cape Verde Peninsula in
Senegal near 15N17W to 09N28W. The ITCZ continues from 09N28W to
09N48W where the convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical
wave. The ITCZ continues west of the wave from 08N53W to 07N59W
along the coast of Guyana. In addition to the convection described
in the tropical waves section, scattered weak convection is
observed from 09N to 14N between 13W and 18W and from 07N to 11N
between 35W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is generating scattered
showers and thunderstorms south of 22N and west of 93W. A very
weak cold front extends across the far NE basin. Winds are light
to gentle from the the NE behind the front with similar speeds but
front the NW ahead of the front. Otherwise, a 1016 mb high
centered in the east- central Gulf near 25N87W and weak gradient
is dominating the pattern. Anticyclonic winds are light to gentle
across the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate SE winds in the SW
Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf and 2-4 ft in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail through the
weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough
develops each evening and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh ESE winds in the eastern
Caribbean, moderate E winds in the central Caribbean, and gentle to
moderate E winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft in the
eastern and SW Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the central Caribbean, and 1-3
ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and
eastern Caribbean will remain through Sun night, then increase to
fresh to strong Mon and Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds
over the south-central waters will expand in coverage through Mon
night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere
during the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N77W
to 29N81W. A line of showers and thunderstorms is observed roughly
120 nm SE of the front. Farther east, a surface trough extends
from 29N62W to 23N69W. This feature, combined with an upper level
trough centered near 70W, is supporting scattered moderate
convection from 24N to 28N between 60W and 69W. Winds are gentle
west of 70W, increasing to fresh to strong SE-S winds from 55W to
65W. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 72W, 4-6 ft from 65W to 72W, and 6-8
ft from 65W to 57W.

Farther east, a weak pressure gradient dominates the central
Atlantic with gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas. The gradient
increases in the eastern Atlantic, with moderate to fresh NE winds
and 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough is located SSE of
Bermuda. The trough will move northward, with the possibility of
low pressure developing along the trough. Fresh to strong
southeast to south winds in the vicinity of the trough will movie
north of the area Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere.

$$
Flynn
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net