[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291147
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 22W from 15N
southward, and moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 08N to 10N within 240 nm west of the wave,
and west of the wave from 03N to 08N between 16W-21W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W/50W from
03N to 14N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is east and west of the wave within 60 nm of
the ITCZ.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 69W south of
19N to inland north-central Venezuela. It is moving westward at
about 13 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present
east of the wave over and near Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. This activity is being enhanced by an upper-level trough
that is roughly along 70W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
elsewhere east of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 10N22W to near
09N30W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ and and continues to 10N41W to just east
of a wave near 09N48W and resumes west of the same wave at 08N51W
to near 07N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W-45W, and from 05N
to 09N between 37W-43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A diurnal surface trough is generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1015
mb high at the north-central, and a 1016 mb high at the east-
central Gulf continue to dominate much of the region. Moderate to
fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft
dominate the southwestern Gulf, including the central and eastern
Bay of Campeche. Moderate with locally fresh southeast to south
return flow and 3-4 ft are over the west-central and northwestern
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and lower seas of 1-3 ft are over
the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the highs will prevail through the weekend,
supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow west of 90W and
light to gentle winds east of 90W. Otherwise, moderate to locally
fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula
each night into Sat as the diurnal trough develops each evening
and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas of
4-6 ft are over the south-central Caribbean area north of
Colombia. Mainly gentle trade winds and seas of 1- ft seas are
over the northwest part of the sea. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE
winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere across the basin.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Similar activity is over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and elsewhere east of the tropical wave.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean will increase to fresh tonight into Sun night. Fresh to
strong winds will develop over the south-central waters Thu
night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere
through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed southward from a 1013 mb low that is
over northern Florida to Lake Okeechobee and to South Florida
and the Florida Keys. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over
the waters between South Florida and the Bahamas. Another surface
trough is analyzed from near 31N63W to 24N66W. The combination of
this trough with diffluence that is present to the east of a
large upper trough located in this general area is resulting in
numerous showers and thunderstorms from 19N to 29N between
57W-64W.

Mainly gentle southerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident
north of 19N between 65W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther
east, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and 4-6 ft seas
are found north of 19N between 50W-65W. A 1021 mb high center is
over the far eastern Atlantic near 28N27W. The associated ridge
dominates the area north of 20N between 20W-37W providing for
light to gentle winds and 3- ft seas. Near the Canary Islands,
moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades and seas of 4-7
ft seas are present north of 19N between the Africa coast and 25W.
Across the tropical Atlantic, moderate with locally fresh
northeast to east-southeast trade winds along with with seas of
5-7 ft exist from 07N to 19N between the Cabo Verde Islands and
Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds
with seas of 5-7 ft in moderate southerly swell are over the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the surface trough south of Bermuda will move
northward, with the possibility of a low pressure center
developing along it. Winds will strengthen in the vicinity of the
trough tonight before moving north of the area Fri. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail east of 65W with light to
gentle winds elsewhere.

$$

Forecaster Aguirre
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