[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, was relocated based
on wave diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave axis is now
near 43W, from 06N to 11N. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present on both side of the axis between 40W and
49W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean, was relocated based on
wave diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave axis is now near
64W, S of 18N to inland Venezuela. Scattered showers are mainly
east of the wave axis S of 15N between 58W and 65W. A broad area
of showers with embedded thunderstorms, associated with this wave
is affecting the Lesser Antilles, mainly south of Guadeloupe and
the easter Caribbean. Moisture associated with this system will
continue to affect the Lesser Antilles today, spreading over the
US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon increasing the
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Recent scatterometer data
indicate fresh to locally strong winds behind the wave axis south
of 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coasta of Senegal near
13N17W to 09N23W. The ITCZ continues from 09N24W to 07N42W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N44W to 05N53W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is off the coast of west
Africa from 05N to 13N between 15W and 22W. This convective
activity could be associated with the next tropical wave. Another
area of scattered moderate convection is located from 06N to 11N
between 27W and 32W.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure of 1015 mb is located just west of the Florida
Keys and is providing mostly light to gentle variable wind E of
90W where seas are in the 1 to 2 ft range. West of 90W, gentle to
moderate return flow is present along with seas to 3 ft.
Otherwise, a surface trough is producing scattered showers over
the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail through the
weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough
develops each evening and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the E Caribbean and is generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles and
SE basin. Please see the tropical wave section for more
information. The pressure difference between surface ridging
across the Bahamas and Cuba, and lower pressure in the southwest
Caribbean is supporting fresh to locally strong winds off Colombia
with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are
elsewhere with seas 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean will increase to fresh speeds tonight into Sun night.
Fresh to strong winds will develop over the south-central waters
Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere during
the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An area of disturbed weather, associated with a surface trough, has
formed about 400 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Upper-level
winds are marginally conducive for some slow development of this
system during the next few days while it moves generally northward
at about 5 mph. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this
system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48
hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov.

A weak trough of low pressure, associated with the remnants of
Cindy and located about 400 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, is
producing disorganized shower activity. This system is expected to
drift toward the west- northwest during the next couple of days,
and redevelopment is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please
refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov

The pressure gradient between subtropical ridging across the
central Atlantic and the surface trough supports moderate to
locally fresh east to southeast winds between 44W and 68W.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are between the Cape Verde Islands
and the west coast of Africa. Seas in these regions are 5 to 6
ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft are elsewhere
in the subtropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned weak trough of low
pressure associated with the remnants of Cindy, will move
northward with the possibility of low pressure developing along
the trough. Elsewhere moderate SW winds across the northeast
Florida offshore waters will diminish to gentle speeds today.
Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere.

$$
KRV
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