[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 37W,
from 02N to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Layered
precipitable water imagery at the lower levels show dry air
within the wave environment, which is hindering the development
of significant convection.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis near 65W, S of 18N
to inland Venezuela, moving W at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers
are E of the wave axis S of 20N between 55W and 66W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N23W to 09N31W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N31W to 08N35W, the resumes W of a tropical wave from
07N38W to 05N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
off the coast of W Africa from 03N to 12N between 12W and 22W,
from 05N to 11N between 26W and 32W, and from 03N to 10N between
39W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure of 1014 mb has developed near 27N90W and is
providing mostly light to gentle variable wind E of 90W where seas
are in the 1 to 2 ft range. West of 90W, gentle to moderate return
flow is present along with seas to 3 ft. Otherwise, scattered
showers are ongoing in the Bay of Campeche associated with the
rainbands of EP92.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail through the
weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle variable wind over the eastern half of the
basin. Otherwise, fresh winds will pulse north and west of the
Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough develops each
evening and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the E Caribbean and is generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles and
SE basin. Similar shower activity is ongoing across the offshore
waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama under the influence of
the E Pacific monsoon trough. The pressure difference between surface
ridging across the Bahamas and Cuba, and lower pressure in the SW
Caribbean is supporting fresh to locally strong winds off Colombia
with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are
elsewhere with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean will increase to fresh speeds tonight into Sun night as
the tropical wave move westward towards the SW Caribbean. Locally
strong winds are forecast for the south-central waters Thu night
through Sat as the wave move S of Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate
winds will dominate elsewhere during the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Showers and tstms prevail S of 29N between 55W and 64W being
enhanced by a middle-level low NE of Puerto Rico. A line of
showers and tstms are also occurring N of 25N between 65W and 69W
in association with a surface trough, remnant of a former low. The
pressure gradient between subtropical ridging across the central
Atlantic and the surface trough supports moderate to locally fresh
SE winds between 44W and 68W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are
between the Cape Verde Islands and the W coast of Africa. Seas in
these regions are 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and
seas to 4 ft are elsewhere in the subtropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough will linger in the same
region today and may reform into a weak low tonight into Thu
morning. The low is forecast to move near Bermuda by Thu night.
Moderate SW winds across the NE Florida offshore waters will
diminish to gentle speeds today as an approaching front weakens
into a surface trough. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail
elsewhere.

$$
Ramos
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