[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 0605 UTC Wed Jun 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 15N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Most
of the wave area is under the influence of Saharan dry air.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
15N southward between 30W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 19N
southward, moving W from 20 knots to 25 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 520 nm
to the east of the tropical wave. The 24-hour rainfall total
in inches, for the period that ended at 28/0000 UTC, is
1.26 in Guadeloupe. The precipitation is affecting the Lesser
Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea. Moisture that is
associated with this system will continue to affect the
Lesser Antilles tonight. The moisture will spread to the
US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday,
increasing the chances of more rain. Earlier sea heights
were ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet from 12N to 18N
between 54W and 60W.

A tropical wave is moving through Central America along
90W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to
10 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 120 nm
to the east of the tropical wave from 15N to 18N. The
precipitation is affecting parts of Guatemala and Belize.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W and 09N30W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N30W to 09N33W, and 06N40W 05N49W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 03N to 10N from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb high pressure center is near 27N87W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate anticyclonic winds cover the western one-fourth
of the area. Mostly gentle to some moderate winds, and
slight seas, span the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough extends from the north central sections
of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the central sections of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from
21N southward between land and 95W.

An inland cold front passes through Georgia beyond Alabama.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 28N northward
between the Florida Big Bend and 90W.

Weak surface ridging will prevail through the weekend,
supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of
90W and light to gentle variable wind over the eastern
half of the basin. Otherwise, fresh winds will pulse
north and west of the Yucatan peninsula each night
into Sat as a trough develops each evening and moves
offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern sections of
the Caribbean Sea. The tropical wave is forecast to affect
the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday.
Please, read the Tropical Waves section for more details.

The surface pressure gradient is weak. The remants of Cindy
have weakened the Bermuda-Azores High. Expect gentle to
moderate trade winds, and sea heights that range from
3 feet to 5 feet.

A tropical wave is moving across the far E Caribbean and
is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
Lesser Antilles. Moderate trade winds in the central and
eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh speeds Wed into
Sun night as the wave move westward towards the SW
Caribbean. Winds are forecast reach strong speeds Fri
through Sat night as the wave move S of Hispaniola.
Gentle to moderate winds will dominate elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low pressure center, the remnants of Cindy, are
near 26N66W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 25N northward
between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong SE winds are from
15N to 28N between 54W and 68W. Mostly fresh SE winds
are from 28N northward between 54W and 68W. Mostly
moderate to some fresh NE winds are from 07N northward
between 40W and 54W. Moderate NE winds are from 20N to
25N between 68W and the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are from 28N northward from 70W westward.
Fresh SE winds are from 06N between 10W and 20W. Moderate
NE winds are from the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the line
26N20W 20N40W from 40W eastward. Moderate or slower
wind speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
The sea heights are ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet from
04N to 18N from 55W eastward, and from 5 feet to 7 feet
from 25N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights
are ranging from 5 feet to 6 feet from 25N northward
between 40W and 50W. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 5 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Earlier
sea heights were ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet from 23N
to 30N between 55W and 63W. Strong upper level winds are
preventing the re-development of this system. The
environmental conditions are expected to become only
marginally favorable for some gradual development later
this week. The system is forecast to move generally
northward in the western Atlantic Ocean, passing near
Bermuda on Thursday or Friday. Please, refer to
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.hurricanes.gov.

A surface trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean, from
31N81W to SW Florida. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 27N northward between 77W and Florida.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 19N northward
between 30W and 60W.

Showers and tstms associated with a low pressure S of
Bermuda near 26N65W has shifted ESE of the low center due
to wind shear. This convection has combined with shower
activity associated with a tropical wave in the E Caribbean
and extends from 19N to 27N between 55W and 65W. The low is
forecast to move generally northward over the western
Atlantic, passing near Bermuda by Thu night. Strong to
gusty SE winds to the E of this elongated area of low
pressure will lift N of the area Thu night. Moderate
SW winds across the NE Florida offshore waters will
diminish to gentle speeds Wed as an approaching front
weakens into a surface trough. Light to gentle variable
winds will prevail elsewhere.

$$
mt
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