[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272242
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been repositioned to 30W, based on latest
model guidance and satellite signature. The wave is moving W at
around 10 to 15 kt. Most of the wave area is under the influence
of Saharan dry air and dust and lacks significant convection. At
this time, scattered showers are noted across the southern portion
of the wave, mainly S of 08N.

An active and fast-moving tropical wave extends its axis along
62W, from 19N southward, moving W at about 20 to 25 kt. A broad
area of showers with embedded thunderstorms, associated with this
wave is affecting the Lesser Antilles, mainly south of Guadeloupe
and the eastern Caribbean. Moisture associated with this system
will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles tonight, spreading
over the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday
increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Recent
scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh winds behind the
wave axis mainly from 13N to 18N, with seas to 9 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
12N16W to 10N29W. The ITCZ continues from 10N31W to 09N58W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is off the coast of
Africa from 03N to 14N and E of 22W. This convective activity
could be associated with the next tropical wave. Scattered
showers are noted along the boundaries elsewhere.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface high pressure, with a 1016 mb center near 28N91W
dominates the weather conditions across the Gulf waters supporting
mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of a surface trough
over the west Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions
prevail.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail through the
weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle variable wind over the eastern half of the
basin. Otherwise, fresh winds will pulse north and west of the
Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough develops each
evening and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the Windward Islands and is
forecast to affect US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Wednesday. Please see Tropical Waves section for more details.

A weak pressure gradient is across the region as the remnants of
Cindy has weakened the Bermuda-Azores High. This is resulting in
gentle to moderate trade winds basin-wide with seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean will increase to fresh speeds Wed into Mon as the wave
move across this area. Winds are forecast reach strong speeds Fri
through Sat night as the wave move across the central basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of
Cindy, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
about 400 miles to the south of Bermuda. Strong upper-level winds
are currently preventing redevelopment of this system, and these
environmental conditions are only expected to become marginally
favorable for some gradual development later this week. The system
is forecast to move generally northward over the western
Atlantic, passing near Bermuda on Thursday or Friday. Recent
scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong winds within about 150
nm NE quadrant of center. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds.
The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance
of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov.

A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic and
extends from 31N28W 28N23W. No significant convection is seen
with this system, and only light winds are noted on either side of
the trough, with seas of 6 to 7 ft due to a northeast swell. The
remainder subtropical waters are under the influence of the
Bermuda-Azores High. Outside of the tropical wave entering the
Caribbean Sea and the remnants of Cindy, gentle to moderate winds
are observed per scatterometer data over the central Atlantic,
with light to gentle winds elsewhere N of 20N, except near the
coast of Mauritania where moderate to fresh northerly winds are
noted. Seas are generally in the 4 to 6 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low is forecast to move generally
northward over the western Atlantic, passing near Bermuda by Thu
night. Fresh to strong SE winds to the E of this elongated area
of low pressure will lift N of the area Thu night. Fresh SW winds
across the NE Florida offshore waters will diminish to gentle to
moderate speeds tonight as an approaching front weakens into a
surface trough. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail
elsewhere.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net