[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252243
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cindy is centered near 21.9N 59.0W at 25/2100 UTC,
or 320 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving NW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Rough to very rough
seas, with seas in excess of 12 ft extend up to 90 nm NE, 60 SE,
and 30 NW quadrants of the center, with seas to 14 ft. Cindy
continues to weaken as it moves NW. The low-level center of Cindy
continues to be exposed to the W of the deep convection.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours,
and Cindy is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure
by Monday night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at web-site
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest T.S.
Cindy Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A fast moving tropical wave is located along 43W, moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N
between 43W and 53W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft
are noted near the northern end of the wave axis, particularly
from 10N to 14N between 38W and 47W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 79W from 09N-18N, moving W at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 16N between
77W-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 11N15W
to 08N34W. The ITCZ continues from 08N34W to 08N42W, then resumes
near 07N44W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 08N and E of 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered near 28N87W. A surface trough is moving westward
across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are noted over the
SW Gulf on either side of the trough axis. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across South Florida and the Straits of
Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominate the Gulf
waters with seas generally in the 2 to 4 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from southwest Florida to
the upper Texas coast will move little through mid week. Fresh
winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night
through mid week as a trough develops each evening and moves
offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing
some hazy conditions over the northwest Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical
wave analyzed in the area.

Outside of the wave area, gentle to moderate trades are noted
with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas associated with the
remnants of Bret will gradually diminish across the central and
southwest Caribbean through tonight. Moderate to fresh trade
winds will persist across the Caribbean thereafter through mid
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical
Storm Cindy.

A surface ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic to east-
central Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active
north of 23N and west of 75W off southeast Florida between the
ridge and a frontal trough that extends from 31N79W to near Cape
Canaveral. This convective activity is ahead of a mid to upper
level trough over the eastern U.S. Showers and thunderstorms are
developing over SE Florida and the Florida Keys where abundant
moisture and instability persist. Farther east, a trough extends
from weak 1019 mb low pressure centered near 31N62W to 26N63W.
The Bermuda-Azores high, with a main 1028 mb high pressure
located near 36N44W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas
are noted south of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are evident north of 20N, outside of the area around
Tropical Storm Cindy.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Cindy will move to
23.2N 60.4W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near
24.8N 61.9W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. Elsewhere, a
ridge of high pressure extends from Bermuda SW to the northern
Bahamas.

$$
ERA
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