[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cindy is centered near 20.9N 58.0W at 25/1500 UTC
or about 375 nm NNE of the Lesser Antilles moving NW at 15 kt. A
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day
or so. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Rough to very
rough seas, with seas in excess of 12 ft extend up to 105 nm NE,
90 SE, and 60 NW quadrants of the center. Cindy continues to
weaken as it moves NW. The low-level center of Cindy is exposed to
the W of the deep convection. Additional weakening is forecast
during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Cindy is expected to degenerate
into a trough of low pressure by Monday night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at wed-site
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest T.S.
Cindy Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A very fast moving tropical wave is relocated farther W along 41W
on the 12Z surface map. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 40W and 42W. Fresh to
locally strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are noted near the
northern end of the wave axis, particularly from 10N to 14N
between 37W and 41W. Scatterometer and altimeter data confirmed
these winds and sea heights.

At 25/1200 UTC, the remnants of former Tropical Storm Bret are
analyzed as a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea. Its
axis is along 78W, extending from Jamaica southward to eastern
Panama, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. An area of numerous
showers and thunderstorms is associated with this system covering
the region from 12N to 15N between 76W and 80.5W. This wave is
forecast to propagate into the eastern Pacific region. Moisture
from this system will spread across Central America tonight into
Mon, increasing the likelihood of locally heavy rain.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16.5W
to 10N21W to 08N33W. The ITCZ continues from 08N33W to 08N40W to
05N50W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N to 08N between 11W and 35W, from 10N to 12N
between 46W and 50W, and from 05N to 08.5N between 50W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from southwest Florida to the Upper Texas coast. A
high pressure cell of 1017 mb has developed over the NE Gulf and
is located near 28N77W. A surface trough is moving westward across
the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
over the SW Gulf on either side of the trough axis. Similar convective
activity is occurring across the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow dominate the Gulf waters with seas generally in
the 2 to 4 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from southwest Florida to
the upper Texas coast will move little through mid week. Fresh
winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night
through mid week as a trough develops each evening and moves
offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing
some hazy conditions over the northwest Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

As previously mentioned, the remnants of Bret are analyzed as a
tropical wave with axis along 78W. Please, see the Tropical Waves
section for more details. An area of fresh to strong winds with
seas of 8 to 9 ft persist on the E side of the wave and just S of
Jamaica as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Elsewhere
gentle to moderate trades are noted with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas associated with the
remnant trough of Bret will gradually diminish across the central and
southwest Caribbean through tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds
will persist across the Caribbean thereafter through mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical
Storm Cindy.

A surface ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic to east-
central Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active
north of 27N and west of 75W off northeast-central Florida
between the ridge and a frontal trough that extends from 31N79W to
near Cape Canaveral. This convective activity is ahead of a mid
to upper level trough over the eastern U.S. Showers and thunderstorms
are developing over SE Florida and the Florida Keys where abundant
moisture and instability persist. Farther east, a trough extends
from weak 1019 mb low pressure situated near 31N60.5W to 25N61W. A
few showers are observed near the low center. The Bermuda-Azores
high, with a main 1029 mb high pressure located near 36N45W
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate
to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted south of 20N,
and gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident north
of 20N, outside of the area around Tropical Storm Cindy.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Cindy will move to
22.3N 59.5W this evening, weaken to a tropical depression near
23.9N 60.9W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Elsewhere, a
ridge extending from Bermuda SW to the Bahamas will dominate the
forecast waters through at least mid-week.

$$
GR
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