[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 23/0300 UTC, is
near 13.3N 61.1W. Tropical Storm Bret is moving W, or
270 degrees, 16 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Wind speeds of 50 knots
are: within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant;
within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within
0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical
storm-force winds are: within 100 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant; within 80 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant; within 40 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 100 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The sea heights are reaching 12 feet:
within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant;
within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 45 nm of the center in the SW quadrant;
and within 210 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
The maximum sea heights are reaching 19 feet.
The sea heights are ranging from 5 feet to 6 feet
from 20N to 26N between 55W and 70W.
Precipitation: scattered strong is within 120 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate
to strong is within 210 nm of the center in the
E semicircle. Bret is crossing the Lesser Antilles at
this time as a strong tropical storm. The conditions
that are in the area should improve later tonight as
the storm moves away. A Tropical Storm Warning has
been issued for: Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines,
St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica. There is a risk of
flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous
waves along the coast within the warning area.

Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Cindy, at 23/0300 UTC,
is near 11.7N 45.2W. T.S. Cindy is moving WNW, or
85 degrees 12 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Tropical storm-force
winds are within 50 nm of the center in the NE quadrant;
within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, and the
SW quadrant; and within 40 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The sea heights are forecast to range from
8 feet to 11 feet from 11N to 15N between 43W and 46W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within
165 nm of the center in the W semicircle.

Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm on
either side of the tropical wave from 03N to 11N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 06N to 10N between
73W and the tropical wave in Colombia, and from 08N to 10N
between 71W and 73W in Venezuela. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 17N to Cuba between 72W and 80W, and
elsewhere within 330 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N, to 10N20W, 08N30W, and 09N38W.
Precipitation: disorganized isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through 28N60W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to the Straits of Florida, to the Yucatan Peninsula.

The monsoon trough passes through 09N74W in Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: numerous strong is from
10N to 13N between 81W and Central America.

The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet in
the central sections of the Caribbean Sea, from east to
west. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet
in the remainder of the SE corner of the area, and in
the SW corner, and in the NW corner.

A stationary front is in the coastal plains/the coastal
waters, from the Florida Panhandle beyond east Texas.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 25N northward between 80W and 92W.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet mostly.
An exception is for 5 feet off the coast of the Florida
Panhandle; and for 2 feet off the coast of central
Louisiana, in the Straits of Florida, and off the
coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula.

High pressure extending from southwest Florida to the upper
Texas coast will move little through early next week. Fresh
winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night
through Fri night as a trough develops each evening and moves
offshore. A nearly stationary front along the northeast Gulf
coast will continue to bring scattered thunderstorms to those
waters through Fri. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico
is producing some hazy conditions over sections of the
western Gulf south of 25N.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Bret that is close to Saint Vincent.

The monsoon trough passes through 09N74W in Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: numerous strong is from
10N to 13N between 81W and Central America.

The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet in
the central sections of the Caribbean Sea, from east to
west. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet
in the remainder of the SE corner of the area away from
the influences of T.S. Bret; and in the SW corner, and
in the NW corner.

The center of Tropical Storm Bret is close to Saint Vincent
near 13.3N 61.1W 1004 mb at 11 PM EDT, moving W at 16 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Bret
will move to 13.4N 63.7W Fri morning, 13.5N 67.2W Fri evening,
13.6N 70.7W Sat morning, 13.7N 74.1W Sat evening, and dissipate
Sun morning. Farther east, newly named Tropical Storm Cindy
is near 11.7N 45.2W 1006 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Cindy
will move to 12.4N 47.0W Fri morning, 13.6N 49.5W Fri evening,
15.1N 52.1W Sat morning, 16.7N 54.8W Sat evening, 18.3N 57.5W
Sun morning, and 19.8N 59.9W Sun evening. Cindy will change
little in intensity as it continues to move to well north of
the Leeward Islands through Mon, then weaken thereafter.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
about Tropical Storm Bret and Tropical Storm Cindy.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the
area that is from 20N northward from 65W westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the area of the
cyclonic wind flow. The sea heights range from 2 feet
to 5 feet. Fresh anticyclonic winds are from 20N to 24N
from 55W westward. Moderate or slower wind speeds are
elsewhere from 55W westward.

A cold front passes through 31N38W to 30N40W 28N50W 27N57W
31N63W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 25N northward between 30W and 65W. Fresh NE winds
are from 28N northward between 48W and 55W. Moderate
NE winds are elsewhere from the cold front northward
between 45W and 60W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are
elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W and 55W. Strong
NE winds are from 20N to 23N between 19W and 24W. Fresh
NE winds are elsewhere from 15N to 26N from 28W eastward.
Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 2 feet to
5 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Cindy is near 11.7N 45.2W 1006 mb at 11 PM EDT,
moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Cindy will move to the northeast of the
Leeward Islands near 18.3N 57.5W by Sun morning, and reach
19.8N 59.9W Sun evening. Cindy will change little in intensity
as it continues to move to well north of the Leeward Islands
through Mon, then weaken thereafter. Elsewhere, high pressure
extending from the north-central Atlantic to the central
Bahamas will lift northward through early Sun ahead of
T.S. Cindy.

$$
mt/ec
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