[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bret is centered near 13.4N 59.6W at 22/2100 UTC
or 13 nm NNW of Barbados and moving west at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Recent satellite imagery indicate that
westerly wind shear has increased over Bret and most of the deep
convection is located more than 100 miles east of the center. Seas
near the center are 25 to 27 ft and expected to gradually subside
over the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast
tonight while Bret passes the Windward Islands. A gradual
weakening trend is anticipated once Bert enters the eastern
Caribbean Sea, and the system is likely to dissipate over the
central Caribbean Sea by Saturday night or early Sunday. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Four is centered near 11.5N 44.0W at 22/2100
UTC or 1035 nm E of the Lesser Antilles and moving west-northwest
at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Easterly shear is
still present but convection has been increasing near the center.
Combined seas of 10 to 11 ft near the center are expected to
build to between 13 and 15 ft by Fri morning. Some strengthening
is forecast during the couple days, and the depression is
likely to become a tropical storm later tonight. A weakening
trend is forecast after it passes well north of the northern
Leeward Islands early next week. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 14N southward,
and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 10N between 17W and 27W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from just south of the
Windward Passage southward into northern Colombia, and moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over Hispaniola and northern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea Bissau-Guinea
border through 07N23W to 09N31W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of the trough from 05N to 09N between the Sierra
Leone/Liberia coast and 17W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near
Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest stationary front near New Orleans and across the Florida
Panhandle is interacting with an mid to upper-level trough to
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the north-central
and northeastern Gulf. A diurnal surface trough is causing widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Yucatan
Peninsula. Otherwise, a broad surface extending from southern
Florida to near Tampico, Mexico continues to dominate the region.
Fresh to strong ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
present at the south-central Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds and 3 to 4 ft seas exist at the northeastern and
west-central Gulf. Mainly gentle winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will move little through
early next week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night through Fri night as a trough develops each
evening and moves offshore. A nearly stationary front along the
northeastern Gulf coast will continue to bring scattered
thunderstorms to those waters through Fri. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico is producing some hazy conditions over sections
of the western Gulf S of 25N.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Tropical
Storm Bret near Barbados.

A surface ridge extends southwestward from near Bermuda to beyond
southern Florida. Convergent southerly winds near the ridge axis
are coupling with divergent flow aloft to produce scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northwestern basin,
including the Yucatan Channel. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the
basin. Tight gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over
northern Colombia is causing fresh to strong easterly winds with 6
to 8 ft seas at the central basin. Fresh to strong ESE winds and
seas at 5 to 7 ft are observed at the Gulf of Honduras. Outside
the influence of Tropical Storm Bert near Barbados, moderate to
fresh ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present at the eastern
basin, and west-central basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds
with 3 to 5 ft seas in easterly swell are found at the
southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of
2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere of the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bret will gradually weaken as it
moves to near 13.5N 62.0W late tonight,then to near 13.7N 65.3W
Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. It
will reach near 13.9N 68.8W late Fri night, then near 13.9N 72.4W
Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Afterward, Bert is expected to weaken to a tropical depression
near 13.8N 75.7W late Sat night and dissipate by early Sun
afternoon. Farther east, Tropical Depression Four will strengthen
to a tropical storm near 12.0N 45.8W late tonight with maximum
sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. A slow strengthen trend will
continue will it moves to near 13.2N 48.3W Fri afternoon, to near
14.4N 50.9W late Fri night, then to near 16.0N 53.5W Sat
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. It
should reach near 17.6N 56.2W late Sat night, then begin to
weaken as it nears 19.1N 58.8W Sun afternoon. Tropical cyclone
Four is forecast to remain well east of the northern Leeward
Islands through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Tropical
Storm Bret and Tropical Depression Four.

Convergent southerly winds are taking advantage of divergent flow
aloft to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near
the Florida east coast. A cold front curves westward from the
Azores across 31N40W and 29N50w to beyond 31N60W. Refer to the
Monsoon trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning
for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident
off the northeastern Florida north of 29N between 78W and the
Georgia-northern Florida coast. Moderate to fresh ENE trades and
seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 19N between 55W and the southeast
Bahamas. The large dome of 1019 mb Mid-Atlantic High near 26N40W
is supporting light to gentle with locally moderate winds and 2 to
4 ft seas north of 22N between 27W and 78W. Near the Canary
Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
noted north of 18N between the Africa coast and 27W. At the
tropical Atlantic outside the influence of Tropical Storm Bert and
Tropical Depression Four, moderate to fresh NNE to ESE winds and
seas at 5 to 8 ft seas are present from 06N to 19N/22N between the
central Africa coast and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle
southerly and monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in southerly
swell prevail the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast for waters west of 55W, Tropical Depression Four
will strengthen to a tropical storm near 12.0N 45.8W late tonight
with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, and continue to
slowly strengthen as it moves to near 13.2N 48.3W Fri afternoon.
It should reach near 14.4N 50.9W late Fri night, then near 16.0N
53.5W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60
kt. Afterward, it will move to near 17.6N 56.2W late Sat night,
then begin to weaken as it nears 19.1N 58.8W Sun afternoon.
Tropical Storm Four is forecast to remain well east of the
northern Leeward Islands through early next week. Otherwise, high
pressure extending from the north- central Atlantic to the central
Bahamas will lift northward through early Sun ahead of tropical
cyclone Four.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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