[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 221438
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
1100 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a sheared cloud
pattern with the center of an elongated surface circulation located
near the northeastern edge of the deep convective mass.  Multiple
low cloud swirls have emerged from the convection about 50 nm
east-southeast of the previously noted primary surface center.  A
recent METOP-A/B scatterometer pass showed the strongest winds
(30-32 kt) situated over the northeast quadrant.  Therefore, the
initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is expected to remain in marginally favorable
atmospheric conditions and over warmer-than-normal oceanic
temperatures during the next 3 days.  Through the remainder
of the forecast, vertical shear is forecast to increase
significantly as the depression approaches a deep-layer
mid-Atlantic trough extending from the central Atlantic to the
Greater Antilles.  Accordingly, a weakening trend should be
underway by 72 hours.  The official intensity forecast is an update
of the first advisory and consists of a blend of the consensus and
deterministic models beyond day 3.

The initial motion is estimated to be 285/13 kt and a
west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed
is forecast during the next 4 days.  Near the end of the period, a
northwestward motion is expected as the depression rounds the
southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and enters
a growing weakness over the western Atlantic.  The NHC forecast
reflects no significant change from the previous one and is based
on the tightly clustered, highly reliable multi-model consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 11.3N  42.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 11.8N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 12.8N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 14.0N  49.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 15.5N  52.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 17.1N  54.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 18.6N  57.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 21.7N  62.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 24.0N  65.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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