[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 221436
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
1100 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

Bret is nearing the Lesser Antilles and remains close to hurricane
strength.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating
the storm this morning and found winds to support maintaining the
initial intensity at 60 kt.  Bret remains very titled in the
vertical, with the low-level center located near the southwestern
edge of the main area of deep convection.  The aircraft found the
strongest winds on the north side of the circulation, with generally
light winds on the southwest side of Bret.

The tropical storm continues to move westward at 12 kt on the south
side of a subtropical ridge.  Since the ridge is expected to remain
in place, Bret should continue its westward motion but at a faster
pace.  This should take the storm across the Lesser Antilles this
evening and overnight and then across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.  Although the models are in fair
agreement, there is some spread in the forward speed among the model
solutions.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one
and remains on the fast side of the guidance envelope, in best
agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models.

Bret is expected to maintain its intensity when it moves across the
Lesser Antilles tonight.  However, weakening should begin shortly
after that due to a pronounced increase in westerly shear and dry
air intrusions.  The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN solutions.  Bret is
still expected to degenerate into an open wave Saturday night or
early Sunday before reaching the western Caribbean Sea.

There is a risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall for several
islands within the Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the
center crosses the island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles this evening
and tonight as a strong tropical storm.

2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Martinique and Dominica.  There is a risk of flooding from heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within
the warning area.  A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.  Additional watches or
warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles later
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 13.8N  57.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 14.0N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 14.3N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 14.5N  66.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 14.6N  70.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 14.5N  74.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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