[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Storm Warning Central Tropical Atlantic Low (AL92): The axis of a
tropical wave is near 37W/38W, from 01N to 17N, and is moving W
at around 15 kt. 1009 mb low pressure is near the wave axis at
10.5N37W. Winds are currently strong north of the low-pressure
center, generating 8-11 ft seas. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 08N to 14.5N between 35W and
41W. This activity continues to becoming better organized and
environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form later today or tonight. This system is forecast to move
westward at 15-20 kt across the central tropical Atlantic through
the middle part of the week. Winds are forecast to reach 35 kt or
greater by this afternoon, and then storm force by late Tue night
with a Storm Warning now in place. There is a high (90%) chance
of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and a
high (90%) chance of development through the next seven days.
Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the tropical wave (with AL92) in the central Atlantic.

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic extends along 24W/25W
from 01W to 16W near the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at around
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed west of the wave
from 04N to 11N between 26W and 31W. Some gradual development of
this system is possible through the middle to latter parts of
this week as the system moves westward at 10-15 kt across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The current Tropical
Weather Outlook assigns a low (20%) probability of generating a
tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, and a low (30%)
probability over the next seven days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 49W, just E of the
coast of Brazil, from 00N to 12N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No
significant convection is occurring near this wave.

A tropical wave is moving from the eastern to the central and
extends along 71W from 02N to 13N. The latest analysis indicates
that the axis of the tropical wave is located well W of previous
positions. No significant convection is occurring near this wave.

A tropical wave is mainly located over the eastern tropical
Pacific Ocean along 87W/88W, with the northern portion extending
across western Honduras to near the Gulf of Honduras, just E of
the coast of Belize, S of 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. No
significant convection is noted near the tropical wave in the
Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W,
through AL92 near 10.5N37W, to 06N46W. No ITCZ is currently
present. All significant convection is described in the tropical
waves and special features sections above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends from the central Atlantic, through
the Straits of Florida, to the upper Texas coast. A surface trough
is analyzed just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. These features are
supporting moderate to fresh SE-S winds W of 87W, with gentle to
moderate southerly winds E of 87W. Seas are 3-6 ft W of 87W, and
1-3 ft E of 87W. Smoke due to agriculture fires over Mexico may
be reducing visibilities in coastal waters from the Yucatan
Peninsula north and westward.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the Straits of
Florida to the upper Texas coast will generally persist through
the week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula
each night through the forecast period as a diurnal trough
develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail, locally fresh at times. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the central and
western Gulf for at least the next day or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
a Storm Warning and associated area of low pressure (AL92) in the
eastern Atlantic which has a high tropical cyclone development
potential. This system may approach the NE Caribbean by the end of
the week.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean, with fresh winds in the
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere.
Seas are in the 6-10 ft range in the central Caribbean, 5-8 ft in
the SW Caribbean, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate
convection is observed in portions of the western Caribbean from
10N to 18N between 80W to 86W. Smoke due to agricultural fires
over portions of Central America may be reducing visibilities in
the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across
the central Caribbean through early Thu. Fresh to strong E winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras before sunrise today, then
moderate to fresh thereafter. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
are expected across SW portions to the west of 80W through at
least this evening. An area of low pressure, possible tropical
cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic
waters Thu and may approach the NE Caribbean thereafter.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
a Storm Warning and associated area of low pressure (AL92) in the
eastern Atlantic which has a high tropical cyclone development
potential.

In the far western Atlantic, a diffluent pattern aloft and a
surface trough from 30N76W to the Treasure Coast of Florida is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 24N and W of
75W, including the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds
are within about 240 NM ahead of the trough. Otherwise high
pressure dominates the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high near
32.5N47W. This is supporting mainly gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow north of 20N, where seas are 3-6 ft. South of
20N, trade winds are moderate to fresh with 4-7 ft seas, except
light to gentle winds S of 10N and W of 40W with 3-4 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, Bermuda high pressure extends a ridge
SW through the central Bahamas to the SE Gulf of Mexico, and will
continue to dominate through mid-week. A weak cold front off the
SE US coast will linger and gradually dissipate through the early
part of the week with locally fresh winds E of it tonight. Mainly
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will prevail the next
several days, locally fresh offshore N Hispaniola and offshore N
Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will continue from the NW Bahamas
to around 70W through today. An area of low pressure, possible
tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical
Atlantic waters Thu through the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky
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