[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning Central Tropical Atlantic Low (AL92): The axis of a
tropical wave is near 36W, from 01N to 16N, and is moving W at
around 15 kt. 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near
10N36W. Winds are currently strong north of the low-pressure
center, generating 9-11 ft seas. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 07N to 13N between 33W and 40W. This
activity is gradually becoming better organized and
environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form over the next day or so. This system is forecast to move
westward at 15 to 20 kt across the central tropical Atlantic
with further development through the middle part of the week.
Winds are forecast to reach 35 kt or greater by late Mon night
and a gale warning has been issued. There is a high (90%) chance
of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and a
high (90%) chance of development through the next seven days.
Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the tropical wave (with AL92) in the central Atlantic.

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic extends along 23W from
02W to 16W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed west of the wave from 07N to 10N between
25W and 28W. Some slow development of this system is possible
through the middle to latter part of this week as the system
moves westward at about 10 to 15 kt across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic. The current Tropical Weather Outlook
assigns a low (10%) probability of generating a tropical cyclone
in the next 48 hours, and a low (20%) probability over the next
seven days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 48W from 01N to
12N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is
occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 65W from 02N to
13N, moving W at around 15 kt. Associated convection is isolated
and weak.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W,
through AL92 near 10N36W, to 06N45W. No ITCZ is currently
present. All significant convection is described in the tropical
waves and special features sections above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high-pressure ridge extends from the central Atlantic, through
the Florida Straits, to the central Gulf. Winds are gentle to
moderate from the S-SW across the majority of the basin.
Exceptions are fresh SSE winds along the S Texas coast, fresh SW
winds along the coastal waters from SE Louisiana to the Florida
Panhandle, and fresh E near the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Seas
are generally 3-5 ft, with 1-3 ft in the far SE basin. Mid to
upper level diffluent flow continues to support scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the far eastern basin. Smoke due to
agriculture fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities in
coastal waters from the Yucatan Peninsula westward.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the Straits of
Florida to the upper Texas coast will generally persist through
the week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula
each night through the forecast period as a diurnal trough
develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail, locally fresh at times. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the central and
western Gulf for at least the next day or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.
Gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-
9 ft range in the central and SW Caribbean, and 3-6 ft
elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the SW
Caribbean from 09N to 16N between 79W to 84W. Smoke due to
agricultural fires over portions of Central America may be
reducing visibilities in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades
across the central Caribbean through early Thu. Fresh to strong
E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras this evening, then
moderate to fresh thereafter. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected across SW portions to the west of 80W
through at least Mon evening. An area of low pressure, possible
tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical
Atlantic waters Thu and may approach the NE Caribbean thereafter.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
a gale warning and associated area of low pressure (AL92) in the
eastern Atlantic which has a high tropical cyclone development
potential.

In the far western Atlantic, a diffluent pattern aloft is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 75W,
including the northern Bahamas. The tail end of a weak cold
front extends from 31N71W to 30N72W. A recent scatterometer pass
found fresh SW winds east of the front. Otherwise high pressure
dominates the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high near 32N48W.
This is supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
north of 20N, where seas are 4-7 ft. South of 20N, trade winds
are moderate to fresh with 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, Bermuda high pressure extends a ridge
SW through the central Bahamas to the SE Gulf of Mexico, and
will continue to dominate through mid-week. A weak cold front
off the SE US coast will linger and gradually dissipate through
the early part of the week with locally fresh winds E of it
tonight. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will
prevail the next several days, locally fresh offshore N
Hispaniola and offshore N Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will
continue from the NW Bahamas to around 70W through tonight. An
area of low pressure, possible tropical cyclone, will move
across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu through the
end of the week.

$$
Flynn
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