[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 23W from
12N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted in the vicinity of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 38W from
11N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers
are noted in the vicinity of the wave.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 56W from
13N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 07N to 11N between 52W and 59W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 72W from 13N
southward into northwestern Venezuela and eastern Colombia, and
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring over western Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W to 06N27W. The
ITCZ continues westward from 06N27W to 03N37W, then from 04N40W
to 04N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
described above, scattered showers are noted within 200 nm N of
the ITCZ boundaries.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean
waters near Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge stretching westward from central Florida to
the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Moderate
with fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail over the
western and south-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across
the Gulf waters and low pressure over Texas and NE Mexico will
support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the
western Gulf through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also
expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at
night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies
over the SW Gulf through at least mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high centered near
27N57W continues to support a trade-wind regime across the entire
basin, except monsoonal winds near Panama. Fresh to strong ENE to
E winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central
basin just north of Colombia, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas persist between Cuba and
Jamaica, and south of the Windward Passage. Gentle monsoonal
winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft in easterly swell are noted near Costa
Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 4
to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the central
Caribbean through the week. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving
across the basin.

An Atlantic ridge extends westward from a 1022 mb high centered near
27N57W to southern Florida. To the east, a cold front extends
southwestward from the eastern Azores across 31N28W to 25N38W. A
surface trough continues from that point to 24N46W. No significant
convection is related to the front/trough at this time.

Moderate to fresh ESE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted
north of 27N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast, and from
19N to 26N between 52W and the Greater Antilles. Otherwise, light
to gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas exist north of 19N between
21W and the Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh
with strong NNE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted north of
27N between the northwest Africa coast and 20W. Farther south,
gentle to moderate with fresh N to NE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas
are noted from 14N to 26N between the central Africa coast and
21W. Across the tropical Atlantic north of 08N, gentle to moderate
NNE to NE trades are between 21W and 40W and moderate to fresh
ENE to ESE trades are between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in
these areas are from 3 to 5 ft and 5 to 7 ft respectively. Light
to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and 3 to 6 ft seas in
southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, little change of the weather pattern
is expected this week. A cold front is forecast to clip the NW
waters on Thu. As a result, expect fresh to strong S to SW winds
and seas to 8 ft over the N waters, mainly N of 29N and W of 70W.

$$
ERA
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