[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from 12N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 11N between 17W and 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 06N to 08N between 32W and 42W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 13N southward,
and moving west around 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 07N to 10N between 51W and the Guyana coast.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from 13N southward into
northwestern Venezuela and eastern Colombia, and moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring over central Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
Dakar, then curves southwestward through 10N22W to 06N27W. Other
than the convection related to the tropical wave near 21W, there
is no significant convection near the monsoon trough.

An ITCZ continues westward from 06N27W to 04N33W, then from
04N37W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 80
nm along either side of the first segment. Similar conditions are
present near and up to 120 nm north of the second segment west of
43W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is
triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern
Caribbean waters near Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convergent southerly winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft
to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the
southeastern Gulf north of western Cuba. Otherwise, a broad
surface ridge stretching westward from central Florida to the
west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Moderate with
locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist at the
western and south-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, pressure gradient between the surface ridge
and low pressure over Texas/northeastern Mexico will support
moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western
Gulf through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also
expected near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at
night through the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies over the
southwestern Gulf through at least midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad Atlantic Ridge associated with a 1022 mb high near 27N54W
continues to support a trade-wind regime across the entire basin,
except monsoonal winds near Panama. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the basin. Fresh to strong
ENE to E winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-
central basin just north of Colombia, and the Gulf of Honduras.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas persist
between Cuba and Jamaica, and south of the Windward Passage.
Gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft in easterly swell
are noted near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE
winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ridge
and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin this
week. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras mainly at night through the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Atlantic Ridge reaches westward from a 1022 mb high near
27N54W to southern Florida. An upper-level trough just east of
northern Florida is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms
near the ridge axis north of 26N between 76W and the
Georgia/northeast Florida coast. A weakening cold front extends
southwestward from the eastern Azores across 31N30W to 24N44W.
Widely scattered showers are seen up to 40 nm along either side of
the front north of 25N. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh ESE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted
north of 28N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast, and from
19N to 25N between 52W and the Greater Antilles. Otherwise, light
to gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas exist north of 19N between 21W
and the Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with
locally strong NNE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are present north
of 26N between the northwest Africa coast and 21W. Farther south,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh N to NE trades and 4 to 6 ft
seas are seen from 14N to 26N between the central Africa coast and
21W. Across the tropical Atlantic north of 08N, gentle to moderate
NNE to NE trades are between 21W and 40W and moderate to fresh ENE
to ESE trades are between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in
these areas are from 3 to 5 ft and 5 to 7 ft respectively. Light
to gentle with locally moderate southerly and monsoonal winds and
3 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic Ridge is going to maintain
the current pattern for the rest of this week. A cold front is
forecast to pass through the waters off northeastern Florida Wed
night into Thu. As a result, expect fresh to locally strong S to
SW winds and seas to near 8 ft mainly N of 29N and W of 70W.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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