[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 39W, from 01N to 12N, moving westward
from 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the
wave from 03N to 12N between 35W and 45W.

A tropical wave is just SE of the Windward Islands with axis near
60W, from 13N southward into Guyana, moving westward from 10
knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to
13N between 54W and 64W.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 80W, from
13N southward into Panama and Colombia offshore waters, moving
westward about 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is in the
Nicaragua and Costa Rica offshore waters just W of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from the W coast of Africa near 13N17W SW to
08N20W to 06N25W. The ITCZ begins near 06N25W and continues along
06N38W to 03N46W to 11N59W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N
to 13N between 12W and 24W, and from 05N to 09N between 27W and
37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad and weak high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic
westward into the Gulf is combining with low pressure along central
Texas to produce moderate to fresh SE winds across the coastal
waters of southern Texas and NE Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh
NE to E winds are also along the coast of the Yucatan peninsula
due to the presence of a surface trough inland. Moderate SW winds
are along the Florida Panhandle coast while light to gentle
variable winds prevail elsewhere. Seas basin-wide are 2 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, as a frontal boundary sinks farther south over
Texas by mid-week, winds will gradually increase to fresh and
expand to the central Gulf Tue through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds
will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue
night into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will
continue to produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf through at least
mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure just E and SE of Bermuda extends a ridge axis SSW
into the northern half of the Caribbean. The pressure difference
between the ridge and lower pressure associated with both the
monsoon trough and a tropical wave moving across SW Caribbean
waters is supporting moderate to fresh winds in the E and NW
basin, and fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean waters.
The strongest winds are in the south-central basin, especifically,
the Gulf of Venezuela and NW Colombia offshore waters. Seas are 4
to 6 ft in the western and eastern basin, and 7 to 9 ft in the
central Caribbean where the strongest winds are occuring.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in
northern Colombia low will tighten this week. This will result in
fresh to strong trade winds significantly expanding in areal
coverage across the central Caribbean through the forecast period.
Meanwhile, winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras
during the afternoon and evening hours through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For information about the tropical Atlantic, see the tropical
waves section above.

Except for the NE Florida offshore waters, the remainder
subtropical Atlantic remains under the influence of both the
Bermuda and Azores High, which is supporting mainly light to
gentle variable winds, except for moderate to fresh E winds S of
22N between the Dominican Republic and 50W. Also, moderate to
fresh S to SW winds are over the NE and central Florida offshore
waters ahead of a frontal boundary approaching from the NW. Seas
are between 3 to 6 ft region-wise.

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the central
Atlantic westward to the central Bahamas through Tue. The
associated gradient will maintain gentle to moderate SE to S winds
across the western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front will become
stationary over the southeastern U.S. through mid-week. Ahead of
it, S to SW moderate to fresh winds will develop into early Fri
across the waters N of 27N. Another cold front will move into the
southeastern U.S. late Sat night preceded by moderate to fresh SW
winds. Active weather affecting portions of the western Atlantic,
including the Bahamas, is expected to diminish some by late tonight.
Winds will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola Tue afternoon and
evening.

$$
Ramos
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