[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121924 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023

Corrected Gulf of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 12N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 250 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and
within 200 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 13N
southward into Guyana, moving westward from 10 knots to
15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east of the tropical
wave, and within 280 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from 13N
southward into Panama and Colombia, moving westward about
10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 120 nm on either side of the
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 15N17W, to 14N20W and 07N28W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N28W, to 07N52W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
elsewhere within 600 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ, and within 300 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

A surface ridge extends from the southern Bahamas to the
coast of Louisiana. Weak surface low pressure covers the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are
between the Bahamas and Florida and the eastern half of
the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is between 70W and 86W,
including in Florida, and from the Bahamas to NW Cuba
and into the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.

The sea heights are reaching 3 feet off the middle Texas
Gulf coast. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet from
the central Gulf to the north of the NE Yucatan Peninsula,
toward the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and to the
coast of Louisiana. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot
elsewhere. Gentle southerly winds are in the north central
and in the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate, with locally
fresh ENE to SE winds are in the remainder of the area.

A broad and weak high pressure ridge extending from the
Atlantic westward into the Gulf is combining with low
pressure over NW Texas to produce moderate SE winds across
the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
As a frontal boundary sinks farther south over Texas by
midweek, winds will gradually increase to fresh and expand
to the central Gulf Tue through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds
will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf
by Tue night into Wed. It is possible that smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico may be producing some hazy
skies in the SW Gulf of Mexico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that an
inverted trough is covering the areas that are from
Honduras to Nicaragua, and the waters that reach 80W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in the areas of the cyclonic wind flow that
is accompanying the inverted trough.

A surface ridge is along 23N, from 70W in the Atlantic
Ocean beyond NW Cuba.

Fresh with locally strong ENE trade winds, and sea heights
that range from 7 feet to 9 feet, are in the south central
sections to the north of Colombia. Moderate with locally
fresh ENE to SE trade winds, and sea heights that range from
4 feet to 6 feet, are in the north central and eastern
sections, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to
5 feet, are in the remainder of the area.

The pressure gradient between high pressure in the central
Atlantic Ocean, and relatively lower pressure in northern
Colombia, will tighten this week. This will result in fresh
to strong trade winds significantly expanding in areal
coverage across the central Caribbean Sea through the week.
The winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras
during the afternoon and evening hours through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are
between the Bahamas and Florida and the eastern half of
the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is between 70W and 86W,
including in Florida, and from the Bahamas to NW Cuba
and into the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front passes through 31N42W to 29N52W, and to
31N63W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate, are to the north of the
line 22N70W 25N60W, 26N40W, beyond 31N37W.

A surface trough is along 31N35W 26N40W 20N53W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm
on either side of the surface trough.

A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure
center that is near 32N23W, to 24N30W 20N40W 17N50W.
A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 26N57W.
Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range
from 2 feet to 4 feet, are from 23N northward.

Moderate to fresh NNE to ENE trade winds, and sea heights
that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are from 13N to 23N
from 30W eastward, and from 07N to 23N between 30W and
the southern Bahamas. Light to gentle SE and monsoonal
winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet
in southerly swell, cover the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean.

A surface trough is passing through the Canary Islands.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on
either side of the surface trough.

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic Ocean
extends a ridge westward to the central Bahamas. This
pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds across
the western Atlantic today. As a cold front approaches
the U.S. east coast, S to SW moderate to fresh winds
will develop tonight into early Fri across the waters
N of 27N. Active weather affecting portions of the
western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, is expected
to diminish significantly by tonight. Winds will
pulse to strong north of Hispaniola this afternoon
and evening as well as Tue afternoon and evening.

$$
mt/ja
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