[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 07 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall - Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Cayman Islands:
Moist southerly middle level wind flow is forecast to combine
with enhanced rising air motion, in order to help to produce
strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall amounts. A nearby
strong upper level jet stream, that will be just to the
northwest the forecast area, also is forecast to play
a role in the potential for the convective precipitation.
The comparatively greatest amounts of rainfall are expected
to occur from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday afternoon,
especially in parts of eastern and central Cuba, in the
central Bahamas, in Jamaica, and in the Cayman Islands.
It is possible that these rains may cause flooding,
especially in the mountainous areas of eastern and central
Cuba. Please, refer to the latest forecast from your
national meteorological service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 25W/26W,
from 14N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to
15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 13N
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N
to 08N between 44W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from 14N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
between 60W and the tropical wave from 14N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W, from 15N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 11N to 14N between 77W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N, to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N24W to 05N34W 02N39W, to 04N51W near the coast of
Brazil, and just to the east of French Guiana.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 10N southward from 20W eastward, and from the ITCZ
to 10N between 30W and 42W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface pressure gradient currently is flat and weak.
The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet throughout
the area. The wind speeds are light and gentle.

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb shows
broad cyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. The water
vapor imagery shows broad upper level cyclonic wind flow.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 27N southward
between 85W and 95W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 90W eastward.

High pressure will generally prevail across the basin
through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to
moderate winds. Moderate return flow will develop across
the western Gulf during the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for heavy
rainfall to affect the NW Caribbean Sea, from Wednesday
afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

A weak pressure gradient spans the area. Gentle to
moderate trade winds are everywhere. The sea heights
range: from 4 feet to 5 feet from the Windward Passage
eastward, and from 2 feet to 3 feet elsewhere.

Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong covers the
areas that are from the southern coastal waters of
Jamaica to SE Cuba. This precipitation is at the eastern
edges of the multilayered cyclonic wind flow that is
covering the Gulf of Mexico, and it is spilling over
into parts of the NW Caribbean Sea.

Weak high pressure across the central Tropical Atlantic
will shift NW and strengthen through Wed night, producing
increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central
Caribbean through early Fri. Active weather is expected
across N central portions through Fri. Atlantic high
pressure will shift NE and weaken Fri night through the
weekend, with winds and seas across the basin diminishing
modestly.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for heavy
rainfall to affect the Bahamas, from Wednesday afternoon
through Saturday afternoon.

A cold front passes through 31N58W, from a 1007 mb
low pressure center that is near 34N55W, to 30N60W
26N70W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 70W westward. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere to the north of the line
that runs from 31N48W to 70W in the Dominican Republic.
Fresh to strong SW winds, and sea heights that range
from 6 feet to 8 feet, are ahead of the front.

A second cold front curves through 31N13W, to 27N20W,
23N30W, 23N37W, to 31N46W. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are from 20N northward from 50W eastward.
Near the Canary Islands, north of 28N east of 20W, the
winds are SW to S strong to near gale force with seas
of 8-11 ft.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 20N56W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is within 440 nm of the center.
A surface ridge runs along 20N, between Africa and 70W.
The wind speeds are moderate or slower, and the
sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet.

A weak cold front from 31N58W to the central Bahamas along
77W will drift SE tonight and dissipate. High pressure
across the central Atlantic will build westward across the
forecast waters Wed night through Sat. Active weather is
expected across the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic to 70W
Wed though Fri.

$$
mt/al
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