[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062141
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall - Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Cayman Islands:
Moist southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air
motion due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just northwest
of this area may lead to the potential for heavy rain and strong
thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur from
Wed afternoon through Sat afternoon, especially across portions
of eastern and central Cuba, the central Bahamas, Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands. These rains could cause flooding, especially
over mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please see
the latest forecast from your national meteorological service
for more information.

Gale Warning E of 35W: A non-tropical area of low pressure located
near the eastern Azores is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms with winds to gale force over the northeastern
Atlantic Ocean. This system could acquire some subtropical
characteristics during the next day or so while it meanders to
the east of the Azores. By late Wednesday, the system is forecast
to move northeastward over cooler waters, and further development
is not expected. Regardless of development, heavy rains and
gusty winds will continue across portions of the Canary Islands,
Madeira Island, and the Azores over the next day or so. For
additional information on this system, see products issued by the
State Meteorological Agency of Spain, the Portuguese Institute
of the Sea and Atmosphere, and High Seas Forecasts issued by
Meteo France. The latter has issued a gale warning for the marine
zone of Irving. The Meteo-France forecast calls for cyclonic 8
east of Irving, mainly NW with severe gusts from 06/1800 UTC
until 07/0300 UTC.

For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, from 14N southward. A few
showers area near the wave axis.

A second tropical wave is near 44W, from 13N southward, moving
westward around 15 knots. A few showers area near the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends over the SE Caribbean into Venezuela
with axis along 65W, from 13N southward. The wave is moving
westward at 15 to 20 knots. This system appears to enhance
convection over eastern Venezuela.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W, from 14N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Some convective activity is
near the wave axis over northern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 02N39W.
It resumes from 02N43W to 05N35W to 04N52W along the coast of
Brazil. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
noted from 00N-10N between 05W-20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern dominates the Gulf waters forcing only
light to gentle winds with seas 1-2 ft over the entire basin.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over parts of the
Gulf in association with an upper-level trough that extends from
SE Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally prevail across
the basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to
moderate winds. Moderate return flow will develop across the
western Gulf over the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Feature above for heavy rainfall to affect the NW
Caribbean Wed afternoon through Sat afternoon.

A weak pressure gradient is also dominating the basin. As a
result, trades are only gentle to moderate with seas of 3-5 ft
in the E Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere. A band-like of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection extends from near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua,
across the Cayman Islands into eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas.
This convective activity is likely being forced by a diffluent
pattern aloft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the central Tropical
Atlantic will shift NW and strengthen through Wed night, producing
increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean
through early Fri. Active weather is expected across N central
portions tonight through Fri. Atlantic high pressure will shift
NE and weaken Fri night through the weekend, with winds and seas
across the basin diminishing modestly.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features above for heavy rainfall to affect the
Bahamas Wed afternoon through Sat afternoon as well as a Gale
Warning E of 35W.

A cold front extends from a 1005 mb low pressure located E of
Bermuda near 33N58W to the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW
winds with seas of 6-8 ft are ahead of the front. Isolated
moderate convection is noted within 60 NM of the front. Farther
east, a cold front crosses the Canary Islands extending S and SW
from a complex area of low pressure over the eastern Azores
mentioned above. The frontal boundary continues westward reaching
a 1005 mb low at 25N26W. A cold front stretches from the low
center westward to 24N42W, where it transitions to a stationary
front reaching to 31N47W. Near the Canary Islands, north of 28N
east of 20W, the winds are SW to S strong to near gale force with
seas of 8-11 ft. The Bermuda High is shifted well south of its
normal position, located this afternoon at 20N55W with 1017 mb
pressure. Unless noted above, winds are moderate or weaker and
seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front over
the western Atlantic will drift SE through tonight and dissipate.
Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic will build westward
across the remaining waters Wed night through Sat. Active weather
is expected across the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic to 70W Wed
though Fri.

$$
GR
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