[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 05 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from
14N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
660 nm on either side of the tropical wave. Some of
the precipitation also is close to the monsoon
trough/ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W, from
14N southward, moving west from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 500 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and
within 300 nm to the east of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from
14N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
between 60W and the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N, to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N19W, to 07N28W and 07N49W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
16N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NE coast of Florida
near 29N81W, to south central Georgia. A stationary
front continues from south central Georgia, in the
U.S.A. coastal plains/the coastal waters, to the
middle Texas Gulf coast. Mostly fresh to some strong
northerly winds are from the surface trough northward
from the Florida Big Bend eastward.

The 1006 mb remnant low pressure center of Arlene is
just to the west of Andros Island in the Bahamas. A
surface trough curves through the 1006 mb low pressure
center, from 26N75W in the Atlantic Ocean to 27N85W
in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 85W westward. Mostly fresh
to some strong northerly winds are from the surface
trough northward from the Florida Big Bend eastward.
Moderate winds are on the southern side of the surface
trough, between the low pressure center and 85W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the western
half of the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly moderate and some
fresh winds are from 23N southward between the Yucatan
Channel and 93W.

The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. An earlier
ship report was showing 8 feet in the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through
the middle of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate
winds. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds off the western
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet from Jamaica
southward, between Jamaica and NW Cuba. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 4 feet from Jamaica northward between
Jamaica and NW Cuba. The sea heights range from 1 foot to
2 feet in the remainder of the area that is from NW Cuba
westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet
in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are in the regional waters
of western Cuba, associated with the remnant low of Arlene.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong
is in Honduras, in broad surface low pressure.
Light and variable winds are in the remainder of the NW
Caribbean Sea. Light to gentle southerly winds are in the
central Caribbean Sea. The Atlantic Ocean ridge extends
westward into the eastern Caribbean Sea, bringing with it
gentle to moderate SE winds.

A weak pressure pattern across the region will maintain
gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean and the
tropical Atlantic through Tue, with occasional fresh
pulses across the SE Caribbean and along the coast of
Venezuela. High pressure will build north of the area,
increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central
Caribbean from the middle to end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N73W, beyond the coast of
Florida near 29N81W. The sea heights that are from the
cold front northward are from 10 feet and higher. The
sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet within 150 nm
to the south of the cold front. The sea heights are
3 feet or less elsewhere from 70W westward.

A 1005 mb low pressure center is near 31N25W. A surface
trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure center that
is near 28N37W, through 28N50W, to a 1004 mb low pressure
center that is near 35N60W. Another surface trough
continues from the 1004 mb low pressure center, to 30N70W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and scattered
moderate to strong, are from 24N northward between
14W and 34W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from the surface trough northward between 40W and 46W.
Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward from 70W eastward. Fresh to
strong cyclonic wind flow is within 210 nm of the 1008 mb
low pressure center and the surface trough between 36W
and 45W. Moderate winds are in the remainder of the area
that is from 19N northward between the 1008 mb low pressure
center and 50W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are from 20N
northward between the 1005 mb low pressure center and
the 1008 mb low pressure center. Fresh to strong W and SW
winds are from 23N northward between 50W and 63W. Moderate
SE winds are between 63W and 74W. Moderate and fresh winds
are from 17N southward between 42W and 60W.

The 1006 mb remnant low pressure center of Arlene is
just to the west of Andros Island in the Bahamas. A
surface trough curves through the 1006 mb low pressure
center, from 26N75W to 27N85W in the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 20N northward between 70W and the western coast
of Florida, including inland in Florida.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 19N28W. Light
and gentle anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N to 23N
between 20W and 46W.

The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 24N
southward from 60W eastward. An exception is for sea
heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 15N
southward from the 51W tropical wave eastward. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of
the area that is from 30W eastward. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet from 14N northward between 30W and
40W, and they range from 3 feet to 6 feet from 20N
northward between 40W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated
to widely scattered moderate to locally strong is from
20N northward between 20W and 70W. Isolated moderate
is from 70W westward.

Fresh to strong SW winds will impact the zones
mainly north of 25N and east of 60W tonight. Atlantic high
pressure extends from the central Atlantic westward along 20N
and then WNW to the central Bahamas, and will shift NW to near
23N58W by Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and large NE swell are
expected over the waters off northeast Florida through Mon as a
weakening cold front sinks S into the region. High pressure will
move into the NW waters Tue night and slide E through Thu.

$$
mt/al
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