[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 22W/23W from 13N southward, moving
westward 10 kt. A few showers are near the wave axis.

A second tropical wave is along 48W, from 12N southward, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the southern
end of the wave axis.

A third tropical wave is over the SE Caribbean extending into
eastern Venezuela and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. A few
showers are near the Windward Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15W then continues SW to near 08N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 09N40W to 09N56W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N
between 24W and 30W, and from 06N to 08N between 35W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure dominates the western Gulf, while part of the
circulation of the remnant low of Arlene is still noted over the
eastern Gulf producing gentle to moderate W to NW winds across
the SE Gulf and in the Straits of Florida. Light to gentle winds
are observed elsewhere across the Gulf waters, except gentle to
moderate N winds near the coast of Texas, and moderate to locally
fresh SE winds near Tampico, Mexico likely associated with some
convective activity previously noted there. Seas are generally 2
to 4 ft based on buoy and ship observations, with a ship
indicating seas to near 8 ft in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure will prevail across the
basin through the middle of the week, to produce mainly gentle
to moderate winds. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds off the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted
across the regional waters of western Cuba associated with the
remnant low of Arlene that is currently reaching the NW Bahamas.
An outer band of showers and thunderstorms has developed over
eastern Cuba, and is affecting mainly Camaguey. Light and variable
winds are noted over the remainder of the NW Caribbean with seas
of 2 to 3 ft. Light to gentle southerly winds dominate the
Central Caribbean where seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range. Elsewhere,
the Atlantic ridge extends westward into the eastern Caribbean
producing gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern across the region will
maintain gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean and the
tropical Atlantic through Tue, with occasional fresh pulses
across the SE Caribbean and along the coast of Venezuela starting
tonight. High pressure centered across the central Tropical
Atlantic will shift NW to near 58W Tue through Wed to produce an
increase in winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean
Wed through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Showers and thunderstorms persist over the NW Bahamas, just ahead
of the remnant low of Arlene which is currently approaching Andros
Island. An outer band of showers and thunderstorms has developed
on the E side of the remnant low and now extends over the SE
Bahamas and Camaguey, Cuba. The mid-upper level trough from the
previous days continues to support this convective activity that
extends NE across the western Atlantic, affecting mainly the
waters between 70W and 77W. A surface trough extends from low
pressure east of Bermuda through the NW Bahamas to the remnant
low of Arlene. Latest scatterometer data confirmed a band of
fresh to strong SW winds within 270 to 480 nm southeast of the
low pressure between 55W and 60W. Seas are estimated to be 8 to
11 ft in this band of winds. Farther east, a 1007 mb low pressure
is centered near 28N40W. Satellite derived wind data indicated
fresh to strong westerly winds within 210 nm south of this low.
Combined seas are estimated to be 8 to 12 ft in the area of
strong winds. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is
under the influence of a 1017 mb high pressure located near
18N38W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate most
of the waters from 10N to 20N E of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, As previously mentioned, a surface
trough extends from low pressure east of Bermuda through the NW
Bahamas to the remnant low of Arlene. Fresh to strong SW winds
are expected well to the SE of the low, impacting zones mainly
north of 25N and east of 60W. Atlantic high pressure extends from
the central Atlantic westward along 20N and then WNW to the
central Bahamas, and will shift NW to near 23N58W by Wed. Fresh
to strong NE winds and large NE swell are expected over the
waters off northeast Florida through Mon, as a weakening cold
front sinks S into the region. High pressure will move into the
NW waters Tue night and slide E through Thu.

$$
GR
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