[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Arlene is centered near 26.4N 85.8W at 02/2100
UTC or 210 nm W of Ft. Myers Florida moving SSE at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The sea heights that are close
to the tropical storm are ranging from 6 ft to a maximum of 10
ft. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails within 180
nm of the center in the NE quadrant.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from
13N to 02N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
in the vicinity of the wave axis.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 16N
to 04N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 10N between 50W and 53W.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from
07N to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N14W to 08N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N22W to 07N32W, then resumes from 06N36W to
05N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N-10N between 14W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Arlene.

Aside from Tropical Storm Arlene, moderate winds are noted N of
the Yucatan peninsula, then gentle winds elsewhere W of 90W.
Light to gentle winds prevail over the SE Gulf. Seas are in the
2-3 ft range west of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W. Some smoke and haze
with reductions to visibility are possible in the southern Gulf
of Mexico and Bay of Campeche due to ongoing agricultural fires
over southern Mexico and northern Central America.

For the forecast, Arlene will weaken to a tropical depression
near 25.3N 85.6W Sat morning, then become a remnant low and move
to 24.0N 84.9W Sat afternoon, 23.2N 83.9W Sun morning, before
dissipating Sun afternoon. Elsewhere over the western Gulf,
gentle to moderate winds are expected into middle of next week.
Over the western Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are expected into
early next week, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast
of Yucatan.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently over the eastern Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh winds are noted east of 75W, with light to
gentle winds prevailing over the remainder of the Caribbean
waters. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range east of 75W, and 2-3 ft west
of 75W.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic
through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the
N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds over the central part
of the basin will diminish early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends from the northern Bahamas northeastward
to 1003 mb low pressure near 31N67W. Fresh to strong winds, and
seas of 4-7 ft, are noted within 90 nm east of the trough. Light
to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere W of 70W. A cold
front has entered the central Atlantic extending along 27N between
27W-31W. Scattered showers are noted within 160 nm on either side
of the front. High pressure is centered near 22N34W. Light to
gentle winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, are noted north of 22N and east
of 55W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are prevail
south of 20N.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds are likely near
and to the SE of the low as it shifts ENE through early next week,
impacting zones mainly north of 25N and east of 65W. Fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds and building seas are expected over
the waters off northeast Florida late this weekend through early
Mon.

$$
ERA
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