[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021823 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTION
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 2 2023

Corrected to indicate that Tropical Depression Two has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Arlene

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Arlene, at 02/1800 UTC, is near
near 26.7N 86.2W. This position is about 425 km/230 nm to the
west of Fort Myers in Florida, and it is about 550 km/297 nm to
the NNW of the western tip of Cuba. The tropical storm is
moving southward, or 175 degrees, 4 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The sea heights that are close
to the tropical storm are ranging from 6 feet to a maximum of
10 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate is within
180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Isolated moderate is from
25N to 27N between 80W and 84W, including in parts of south
Florida. Broad surface low pressure extends from the area of the
tropical storm, through the Yucatan Channel, into the NW part
of the Caribbean Sea.

Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml,for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 13N
southward, moving W from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 450 nm to
the west of the tropical wave 04N to 09N. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 530 nm to the east of the tropical wave
from 04N to 10N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: Scattered
moderate to strong is within 270 nm to the east of the tropical
wave from 05N to 09N, and within 440 nm to the west of the
tropical wave from 05N to 13N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from Puerto Rico
southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 17N southward between 60W and 63W, covering
the nearby eastern Caribbean Sea islands, from Guadeloupe
southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
along 10N, 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W, 06N33W 06N40W
05N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 02N to 10N from 21W eastward. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about
Tropical Storm Arlene.

Moderate to locally fresh winds are from the Yucatan Peninsula
westward. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere from 90W
westward. Light to gentle winds are in the SE Gulf. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet from 90W westward, and they
range from 1 foot to 2 feet, elsewhere from 90W eastward, away
from Tropical Storm Arlene.

Some smoke and haze, and possible reductions to visibility, are
in the southern parts of the Gulf of Mexico, from the NE Yucatan
Peninsula southwestward, due to ongoing agricultural fires in
southern Mexico and in northern Central America.

Tropical Depression Two is near 26.7N 86.3W 1002 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving S at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. T.D. Two will move to 25.6N 86.2W this evening, 24.2N 85.8W
Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 23.2N 84.9W Sat
evening, before dissipating Sun morning. Over the western Gulf,
gentle to moderate winds are expected into early next week, with
occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mostly fresh SE winds are in the central one-third of the area.
Moderate SE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 5 feet from 73W eastward, and they range from 2 feet to
3 feet elsewhere.

An upper level trough, and a surface trough, are in the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
accompanies the upper level trough.

Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong in
clusters, is covering the areas that are from 11N to Cuba between
between 70W and 82W. This area encompasses Hispaniola, the SE
half of Cuba, Jamaica, and the surrounding waters. Isolated
moderate is from 12N southward from 78W westward. The monsoon
trough extends from La Peninsula de la Guajira of northern
Colombia, to 13N80W, through the central sections of Nicaragua,
into the Pacific Ocean.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 02/1200 UTC, are: 1.59 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.30 in
Trinidad, 0.07 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Kingston in Jamaica,
according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables, MIATPTPAN.

A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades
across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end
of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of
Venezuela and Colombia. Winds over the central part of the basin
will diminish early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is passing through 31N30W 27N43W, beyond 31N62W. The
front connects eventually to a 1005 mb low pressure center that
is near 31N67W. A surface trough extends from the 1005 mb low
pressure center, to the NW Bahamas, and to 25N80W off the coast of
SE Florida. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 20N
northward from 20W westward. Fresh to strong cyclonic wind flow is
within 210 nm of the 1005 mb low pressure center. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are from 23N to 25N between 66W and 68W.

Large-scale moderate anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere from 20N
northward from 60W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to
5 feet from 20N northward from 60W westward. Large-scale gentle
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward from 60W eastward. A 1016 mb high pressure center is
near 22N35W.

Fresh northerly winds are from 15N to 20N from 23W eastward.
Fresh NE winds are from the ITCZ to 13N between 40W and 50W.
Moderate NE winds cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, elsewhere, from 60W eastward.
The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 02/1200 UTC, are: 1.09 in Bermuda, according to the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

A surface trough extends from the northern Bahamas northeastward
to 1007 mb low pressure southwest of Bermuda near 30N68W. Fresh to
strong winds are likely near and to the SE of the low as it
shifts ENE through early next week, impacting zones mainly north
of 25N and east of 65W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and
building seas are expected over the waters off northeast Florida
late this weekend through early Mon.

$$
MT/EC/SDR
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