[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Aug 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning (Invest AL96): A 1012 mb low
pressure is centered near 23N54W moving NW at 7 kts. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 20N to 23N
between 49W and 52W. Winds are near gale force in the eastern
semicircle in the vicinity of the convection. Peak seas are at 13
ft. Environmental conditions still appear somewhat conducive for a
tropical depression or tropical storm to develop during the next
couple of days while the system moves NW then N at around 10 kt
over the central Tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development,
gale force winds are likely well E of the center over the next
couple of days. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has emerged off the coast of
Africa this afternoon and is now midway between the mainland
coast and the Cabo Verde Islands, along 19W. It is moving W at 15
kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this
time.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 34W from 04N to
20N moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 12N between 26W and 34W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 66W from Puerto
Rico to Venezuela moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection
associated with this wave is displaced to the northeast, over the
northern Leeward Islands.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 87W from the Gulf
of Honduras across Central America and into the eastern Pacific,
moving W at 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave has mainly
moved into the eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to
07N43W. The ITCZ continues from 07N43W to 06N55W. In addition to
the convection described in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is observed from 07N to 09N between 42W and
45W.

A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the SW Caribbean, generating scattered moderate with
isolated strong convection south of 11N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The weather pattern is quite benign across the basin. Winds are
light to gentle with 1-2 ft seas.

For the forecast, a surface ridge is currently anchored by a 1016
mb high pressure centered near 29N95W. As the ridge stays in
place over the next few days, this will support gentle to moderate
winds over most of the basin. A thermal trough will emerge off
the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh
winds by the middle to latter part of the week. High pressure will
shift SE into the east Gulf Tue and Wed and allow for moderate
return flow to develop across the W Gulf Wed through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information
on the waves moving across the Caribbean.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to locally strong
easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean with 5 to 7 ft
seas. Winds are moderate in the eastern Caribbean with 4-6 ft
seas. Winds are light to gentle in the NW Caribbean with 2-4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, 1012 mb low pressure near 23N54W will
disrupt the Atlantic ridging N of the area. This will relax the
pressure gradient across the central Caribbean with fresh to
locally strong winds prevailing through the south-central basin.
These winds will persist through most of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Invest
Area AL96 well NE of the Leeward Islands that has potential for
tropical cyclone development.

Convection in the northwest waters primarily associated with mid
and upper level features has diminished this afternoon.

Subtropical high pressure centered SW of the Azores extends a
surface ridge from 31N57W to S Florida. North of the ridge,
gentle to moderate SW winds prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas. South of
the ridge moderate easterly winds dominate with 4 to 5 ft seas.
Winds are gentle near the ridge axis.

East of 55W, AL96 is generating seas in excess of 8 ft from 20N to
28N between 47W and 55W. These seas are building and expanding.
In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between the Azores high and
lower pressure over Africa is supporting fresh NE winds and 6 to
8 ft seas. Locally strong winds are noted in the gaps between the
Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, 1012 mb low pressure near 23N54W is
producing a small area of gale-force winds to the east of the
center. Environmental conditions still appear somewhat conducive
for a tropical depression or tropical storm to develop during the
next couple of days while the system moves northwestward and then
northward around 10 kt over the central subtropical Atlantic. This
will impact the NE offshore waters over the next few days. This
system has a high chance of formation over the next 48 hours.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue S
of 23N through early Tue before diminishing. Fresh trades will
pulse during the afternoon through early evening today and Tue N
of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A weak frontal trough
will sink S into the waters offshore of NE Florida Tue night and
move SE and reach from near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas by
Thu.

$$
KONARIK
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