[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning (Invest AL96): A 1011 mb low
pressure is centered near 22.3N 53.0W moving NW at 7 kts.
Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from
20N to 23N between 49W and 52W. Winds are reaching 35 kt in the
eastern semicircle near the convection. Peak seas are estimated at
14 ft. Environmental conditions are forecast to be sufficiently
favorable for development over the next few days, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or so.
The system is expected to move northwestward at 10 to 15 kt
today, and then turn northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic by late tonight or Tuesday. Additional information on
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 32W from 04N to
20N moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 12N between 26W and 31W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 64/65W from 03N
to 18N moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 15N to 18N between 57W and 67W including the
northern Leeward Islands.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 84W, south of 21N
moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are noted near the wave axis in the NW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to
07N42W. The ITCZ continues from 07N42W to 06N55W. In addition to
the convection described in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is observed from 07N to 09N between 42W and
45W. Isolated weak convection is observed within 120 nm south of
the ITCZ and monsoon trough between 30W and 50W.

A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the
SW Caribbean, generating scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection south of 11N, including heavy convection affecting the
entrance to the Panama Canal near Colon.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Other than a few isolated showers and thunderstorms in the NE
Gulf, the weather pattern is quite benign across the basin. Winds
are light to gentle with 1-2 ft seas.

For the forecast, a surface ridge is currently anchored by a 1016
mb high pressure centered near 26N92W. This ridge will stay in
place over the next few days. This will support gentle to moderate
winds over most of the basin. The eastern Bay of Campeche can
expect nightly moderate to fresh winds by the middle to latter
part of the week due to a thermal trough that will emerge off the
Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure will shift SE into the east Gulf
Tue and Wed and allow for moderate return flow to develop across
the W Gulf Wed through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information
on the waves moving across the Caribbean.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade
winds in the central Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Winds are
moderate in the eastern Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. Winds are
light to gentle in the NW Caribbean with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean will taper off today. A 1011 mb low pressure
near 22N53W is expected to move NW into the open Atlantic through
Wed. As this occurs, Atlantic ridging N of the area will be
disrupted and cause winds to diminish over most of the basin.
However, a smaller area of fresh to strong winds will continue to
prevail across the south central Caribbean through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Invest
Area AL96 well NE of the Leeward Islands that has potential for
tropical cyclone development.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail west of 65W
and north of 22N. Subtropical high pressure centered SW of the
Azores extends a surface ridge from 31N57W to S Florida. North of
the ridge, moderate SW winds prevail with 4-6 ft seas. South of
the ridge moderate to locally fresh easterly winds dominate with
4-5 ft seas. Winds are gentle near the ridge axis.

East of 55W, AL96 is generating seas in excess of 8 ft from 20N to
27N between 47W and 54W. These seas are building and expanding. In
the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between the Azores high and
lower pressure over Africa is supporting moderate to fresh NE
winds and 5-7 ft seas. Locally strong winds are noted in the gaps
between the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, Moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will continue S of 23N through early Tue before diminishing.
Fresh trades will pulse during the afternoon through early
evening today and Tue N of Hispaniola and over the Windward
Passage. A weak frontal trough will sink S into the waters
offshore of NE Florida Tue night and move SE and reach from near
Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas by Thu.

$$
Flynn
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