[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is located near 42W from 03N to
19N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 11N to 15N between 36W and
46W. This tropical wave has a LOW (20%) chance of developing into
a tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours.

A Caribbean tropical wave is located near 66W from 03N to 19N
moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with
this wave.

A robust tropical wave in the western Caribbean is located along
84W from the Cayman Islands across Central America and into the
far eastern Pacific, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 81W
and 87W, including the Gulf of Honduras. This tropical wave has a
LOW (10%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through
the next 48 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 08N52W. Scattered
moderate convection has developed along the trough from 06N to
11N E of 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough in the SW Gulf of Mexico is inducing scattered
moderate convection from 19N to 25W, W of 93W. Another surface
trough previously over the far eastern Gulf has crossed into the
Florida Peninsula and associated convection is now inland.
Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, weak ridging prevails with high
pressure centered in coastal Mississippi. Easterly winds are
gentle to moderate, and seas are 1-3 ft. Some locally fresh winds
have developed just offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula, where
a diurnal trough is moving W toward the waters.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will remain the dominant
feature across the basin through early next week. This will
support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of
Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that
will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. A weak surface
trough across Florida will drift W across the eastern Gulf this
afternoon through late Sat and become the focus for showers and
isolated thunderstorms.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and
low pressure over Colombia currently supports fresh to strong trades
across the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades in the
NW and eastern basin. Seas are 6-9 ft in this region. Elsewhere,
trades are mainly moderate with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over Colombia will induce pulsing fresh to
strong trades across the entire central Caribbean through Sun,
then become confined to the south central Caribbean through early
next week. A strong tropical wave entering Central America this
afternoon will continue to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean through Sun. Another strong
tropical wave is expected to move across the Tropical Atlantic and
reach 55W by late Sun. Low pressure is expected to form along the
wave and move NW into the open Atlantic through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1017 mb low pressure centered just north of Jacksonville, Florida,
is producing some scattered moderate convection over the far NW
discussion waters. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under
the influence of 1026 mb subtropical high centered E of Bermuda.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin
from 20N to 31N. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 20N. Seas
are 4-7 ft across the basin. An area of strong NE winds is from
18N to 21N east of 20W near the coast of Mauritania, with seas to
8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the
central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the
weekend. Active weather will continue within 120 nm on the Florida
coast through Sat. Fresh trades will pulse each late afternoon
through evening N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A
strong tropical wave will move into the eastern Atlantic waters
Sun through Mon. Surface low pressure is expected to develop along
the wave by late Sun and move NW then N across the eastern
offshore zones through Wed.

$$
KONARIK
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