[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281655
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is located near 41W from 03N to
19N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 11N to 15N between 36W and 46W. This tropical
wave has a LOW (20%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone
through the next 48 hours.

A Caribbean tropical wave is located near 64W from 03N to 19N
moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted with
this wave.

A robust tropical wave in the western Caribbean is located near
83W from 04N to 20N moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N
between 81W and 87W, including the Gulf of Honduras. This tropical
wave has a LOW (10%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone
through the next 48 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 08N50W. No additional
convection is noted beyond what is described in the tropical waves
section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough in the W Bay of Campeche is producing scattered
moderate convection from 18N to 23N west of 93W. A surface trough
extends southwest from 1017 mb low pressure located just north of
Jacksonville, Florida, across Lake Okeechobee, the Florida Keys,
and terminates in the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate
convection is noted between the Dry Tortugas and the Everglades.
Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, weak ridging prevails with high
pressure centered in coastal Mississippi. Easterly winds are
gentle to moderate, and seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will remain the dominant
feature across the basin through early next week. This will
support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of
Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that
will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. A weak surface
trough across Florida will drift W across the eastern Gulf this
afternoon through late Sat and become the focus for showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and
low pressure over Colombia currently supports fresh trades across
the central and western Caribbean, with locally strong trades in
the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are
6-9 ft in this region. Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate with
4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over Colombia will induce pulsing fresh to
strong trades across the entire central Caribbean through Sat
morning, then become confined to the south central Caribbean Sat
afternoon through early Mon. A strong tropical wave over the west
Caribbean will continue to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Sat, as it moves into central America.
Another strong tropical wave is expected to move across the
Tropical Atlantic and reach 55W by late Sun. Low pressure is
expected to form along the wave and move NW into the open Atlantic
through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1017 mb low pressure centered just north of Jacksonville, Florida,
is producing some scattered moderate convection over the far NW
discussion waters. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under
the influence of 1027 mb subtropical high centered near 32N44W.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin
from 20N to 31N. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 20N. Seas
are 4-7 ft across the basin. An area of strong NE winds is from
18N to 21N east of 20W near the coast of Mauritania, with seas to
8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the
central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the weekend
as a surface trough along the Florida Peninsula continues
drifting west- northwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over
the next few days. Active weather will continue within 120 nm on
the Florida coast through Sat. Fresh trades will pulse each late
afternoon through evening N of Hispaniola and over the Windward
Passage. A strong tropical wave will move into the eastern
Atlantic waters Sun through Mon. Surface low pressure is expected
to develop along the wave by late Sun and move NW to N across the
eastern offshore zones through Wed.

$$
Mahoney
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