[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don is centered near 46.3N 44.8W at 24/0300 UTC or
345 nm E of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NE at 17 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
evident within 120 nm of the center with the strongest convection
occurring in the southern quadrant. Seas are up to 25 ft near the
center. A turn to the east-northeast and then to the east are
expected later today and tonight. Continued weakening is forecast,
and Don is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
T.S. Don Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned along 24W,
south of 18N, based on the latest satellite imagery and wave
diagnostic data. The wave is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 13N and between
20W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of
20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 08N and between 35W and 44W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N30W to a
1012 mb low pressure (Invest 95L) near 11N48W and then to 11N55W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from
05N to 17N and between 45W and 57W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in the northern
Gulf of Mexico, primarily in the north-central Gulf, due to a
weak stationary front draped across the northern Gulf coast.
Farther south, scattered moderate to strong convection is seen in
the Bay of Campeche, especially south of 20N. The rest of the
basin is dominated by a 1019 mb high pressure located west of
Florida. Moderate to fresh E-NE winds are evident off NW Yucatan,
mainly south of 25N and east of 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-4
ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3
ft prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered near the Florida
Peninsula will remain dominant through the Gulf through
midweek. This will support mainly gentle to moderate winds,
except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be
enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan
Peninsula nightly. A stationary front just inland the northern
Gulf coast will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms in
adjacent waters for the next few days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in
the SW Caribbean Sea, especially within 200 nm of the coasts of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama. The rest of the basin is
under the influence of a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing
the development of showers and thunderstorms.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the
Caribbean and lower pressures in northern South America and
Central America sustain strong to locally near gale-force
easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas in the areas described are 6-9 ft, with the
highest seas noted off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found in the eastern and north-
central Caribbean. Light to gentle easterly breezes and slight
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure over Central America and northern South America
will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean
tonight. Winds should diminish slightly to fresh to strong Mon
through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong trades will occur
over the Gulf of Honduras into Mon night. Low pressure, AL95,
over the tropical N Atlantic well to the east of the forecast
waters is expected to weaken to a trough early this week as it
approaches the Windward Islands. Some slow slow development of
the low is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward across the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea.
Expect increasing winds and seas with the low and then the trough.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Don in the north-central Atlantic.

A 1012 mb low pressure system, designated as Invest 95L, is
located near 10.9N48.4W or about 565 nm E of the Windward Islands.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 08N to
16N and between 47W and 55W. A recent scatterometer pass captured
fresh to strong easterly winds in the northern quadrant. Seas in
these waters are 5-8 ft. While this system has not become any
better organized recently, some slow development remains possible
during the next couple of days while it moves westward across the
tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development by
the middle of the week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across
the Windward Islands early this week from this system. This
disturbance has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Elsewhere, a surface trough is present north of the Leeward
Islands, along 62W and from 20N to 26N. Divergence aloft is
inducing the development of scattered showers within 200 nm on
both sides of the surface trough. Farther west, a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted off central Florida and near the
NW Bahamas. The remainder of the SW Atlantic is in the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are occurring south
of 22N and between 65W and 75W. Seas in the area described are
2-4 ft. Elsewhere west of 60W, light to gentle anticyclonic winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

A broad 1033 mb high pressure system near 37N41W dominates the
central and eastern Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Dry Saharan dust is also moving across the area,
contributing to the suppression of the development of deep
convection. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft
are evident north of the monsoon trough to 31N and between coast
of Africa and 60W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure over the area
will change little through midweek. Fresh trades will pulse
nightly N just N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage.
Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker
over most of the area with moderate to locally fresh speeds for
waters NE of the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms generated by a trough are present from 22N to 27N
between 59W and 65W.

$$
DELGADO
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