[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232227
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don is centered near 45.2N 46.5W at 23/2100 UTC
or 290 nm ESE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NE at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. The center of Don is
becoming less defined as the storm moves over cooler waters.
Moderate convection is within 60 nm on the southern semicircle,
but with no convection on the northern part of the storm. Seas in
excess of 12 ft extend as far as 150 nm from the center, mainly on
the southeast side of the storm. Rapid weakening is expected as
Don continues to move northeastward over cooler waters.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
T.S. Don Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W across
the Cabo Verde Islands from 04N to 20N. It is moving westward at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 10N
and between 20W-27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 04N
to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
seen associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 10N25W to
low pressure (Invest 95L) near 11N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 47W and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A pre-frontal trough extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to just off
Brownsville, Texas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted north of the trough over the north-central
Gulf. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted near a
surface trough over the southwest Gulf. A surface ridge extends
between these troughs from the Straits of Florida to the lower
Texas coast. This pattern is supporting moderate SW to W winds and
2 to 4 ft in the northeast Gulf, and gentle breezes with 1 to 3 ft
seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered near the Florida
Peninsula will remain dominant through the Gulf through mid-week.
This will support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the
eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a daily
trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly. A weak
cold front will move into the far NE Gulf tonight, then stall
through midweek, providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms
in adjacent waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the far southwest Caribbean, off southeastern
Nicaragua and northeastern Costa Rica. Subsident flow aloft on the
west side of an upper low centered southeast of Jamaica is
suppressing most convection elsewhere over the western Caribbean.
Regional radar is showing a few fast-moving trade wind showers
over the eastern Caribbean. Regional buoy and land-based
observations show fresh to strong trade winds across the south-
central Caribbean, where combined seas are 6 to 8 ft. Fresh winds
and 4 to 6 ft are noted over the Gulf of Honduras, and moderate
winds and seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure over Central America and northern South America
will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean tonight.
Winds should diminish slightly to fresh to strong Mon through Wed
night. Fresh to locally strong trades will occur over the Gulf of
Honduras into Mon night. Low pressure over the tropical N
Atlantic well east of the forecast waters is expected to weaken to
a trough during early this week as it approaches the Lesser
Antilles. Some increase in winds and seas may accompany the
trough.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Don in the north-central Atlantic.

A 1012 mb low pressure system, designated as Invest 95L, is
located near 10.6N46.1W. Shower activity continues to be limited
in association with this low. Although environmental conditions
are only forecast to be marginally conducive for some gradual
development, this system could still become a tropical depression
during the next few days while it moves westward across the
tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea. Unfavorable upper-
level winds are forecast when the system moves into the central
Caribbean around midweek, decreasing the chances of formation.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system. This low has a low chance of development in the next
48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Elsewhere, a mid to upper level trough reaches from the north-
central Atlantic to 25N65W. Upper divergence aloft associated with
the trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
within 120 nm to the southeast of the trough, and around the
northern Bahamas. Weak ridging is supporting light to gentle
breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas west of 55W. Farther east, 1031 mb
high pressure is centered near 35N42W. The pattern is supporting
moderate to fresh NE to E winds and combined seas of 5 to 8 ft
east of 55W and north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure over the area
will change little through mid-week. Fresh trades will pulse
nightly N just N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage.
Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker
over most of the area with moderate to locally fresh speeds for
waters NE of the Leeward Islands.

$$
Christensen
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