[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 220838
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
500 AM AST Sat Jul 22 2023

Don continues to generate curved convective bands around the center,
although the overall organization has not changed much during the
past several hours.  There has also been little change in the
various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates, so
the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 50 kt.

The initial motion is 315/12 kt as Don is located on the
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge situated over the north-
central Atlantic.  A mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada
is expected to move eastward and erode the western portion of the
ridge during the next 24-48 h. This should allow Don to turn
northward and then recurve northeastward into the westerlies. Based
on the tightly clustered track guidance, the new NHC forecast is
similar to, but a little faster than, the previous forecast.

Don could strengthen a little during the next 12 h as it passes over
the Gulf Stream.  After that, the cyclone should move over much
colder water and into increasing vertical wind shear.  This
combination should cause weakening, and the new intensity forecast
calls for the system to become post-tropical between 36-48 h and
degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h.  The new intensity forecast
has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 38.3N  49.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 39.9N  50.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 42.3N  49.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 44.6N  47.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 46.5N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  24/1800Z 47.8N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z 48.7N  36.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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