[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 220248
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 21 2023

Don has generally changed little during the past several hours.
Deep convection remains fairly well organized in curved bands that
wrap around the southern half of the circulation.  The initial
intensity of 50 kt is based on the earlier ASCAT data and the
storm's steady nature.  This value is above the latest satellite
intensity estimates and could be a little generous.

Don is moving northwestward at 12 kt and is located on the
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge situated over the
north-central Atlantic.  A mid- to upper-level trough over eastern
Canada is expected to gradually slide eastward, eroding the western
portion of the ridge.  This pattern change should cause Don to turn
northward on Saturday and then northeastward and eastward later in
the weekend and early next week.  The NHC track forecast is a little
to the right of the previous one from 36 h to 72 h, trending toward
the latest models.

The storm could strengthen a little on Saturday while it moves over
a patch of warmer water, however, any intensification should be
short-lived.  Don is expected to move over sharply cooler waters on
Sunday and into an environment of increasing vertical wind shear
early next week.  These environmental conditions should cause Don to
begin weakening in about 24 hours and it will likely become a
post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday.  The system should dissipate
completely in 3 or 4 days.  No change was made to the previous NHC
intensity forecast and this one lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 37.4N  48.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 38.7N  49.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 41.0N  50.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 43.5N  48.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 45.6N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  24/1200Z 47.4N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  25/0000Z 48.4N  38.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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