[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0525 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

INVEST 94L: A 1004 mb low pressure system located near 33N47W,
halfway between Bermuda and the Azores, is producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms, mainly within 175 nm east of the
center. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh
to near gale-force winds are found north of 26N and between 40W
and 47W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft, with the highest seas
occurring near 31N44W. This invest area currently has a high
chance of developing into a subtropical cyclone over the next 48
hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The strong pressure gradient between a
1026 mb high pressure system near the Azores and lower pressures
in NW Africa support strong to gale-force northerly winds north of
22N and east of 22W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass, with the strongest funneling winds occurring in
the waters between the Canary Islands. Seas in the area described
are 7-11 ft. Gales are forecast to persist in the Canarias region
through 15/00 UTC. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France
High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 35W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 04N to 11N and between 30W and
40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 53W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are seen near the
trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 76W, south of 22N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
east of the northern portion of the wave to 72W and from 20N to
23N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau at 12N17W and continues to 13N24W to 08N35W to
12N44W. The ITCZ extends from 12N44W to 10N51W and then from
08N55W to 11N61W. Aside from the convection described in the
TROPICAL WAVES section, no deep convection is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1016 mb high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico,
maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Except for a few
showers off SW Florida, no deep convection is seen on satellite
imagery across the basin. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressures over Mexico support moderate to fresh
E-SE winds in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico. Seas
in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters,
through early next week, while a trough will develop over the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern
will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of
the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean Sea
through the border of Costa Rica and Panama and extends eastward
to NW Colombia. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are present
within 90 nm of the coast of Panama. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are also noted between Cuba and the Cayman
Islands. The rest of the Caribbean is under a generally dry
weather pattern that only supports isolated showers produced by
shallow pockets of moisture that catch a ride in the trade winds.

The pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and lower
pressures across NW South America support fresh to near gale-force
easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, with the strongest
winds occurring off NW Colombia. This was confirmed by a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 4-6 ft are noted in
the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a tropical wave that extends from eastern Cuba to
eastern Panama will move across the remainder of the Caribbean
through late Sat. Active weather is noted ahead of the tropical
wave from eastern Honduras to central Cuba. Another tropical wave
will move across the Windward Islands into the southeastern
Caribbean Sat afternoon, then weaken as it moves across the
central Caribbean through Sun night and across the western
Caribbean Mon and Mon night. The passage of the tropical waves
will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly the central
Caribbean through the period. Winds may briefly reach gale-force
in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding INVEST 94L in the central Atlantic and a GALE WARNING
in the eastern Atlantic.

Two areas of high pressure anchor a broad ridge that dominate the
tropical Atlantic. A 1019 mb high pressure system centered between
Bermuda and Puerto Rico maintains fairly tranquil weather
conditions across the western Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh
SE winds are noted south of 24N and west of 60W. Seas in the area
described are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas
of 2-4 ft prevail in the rest of area W of 55W.

Farther east, a 1026 mb high pressure system near the Azores
maintains a primarily dry weather pattern across the eastern
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this high and lower
pressures over NW Africa support moderate to fresh easterly winds
north of 22N and between 22W and 40W. Seas in these waters are 4-7
ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are also present
south of 20N and between 45W and the Lesser Antilles, along with
seas of 4-6 ft. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist northeast
of the Bahamas through Sun. Farther south, the northern end of a
tropical wave will move westward across the waters south of 22N
overnight into early Fri. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and
rough seas south of 22N following the tropical wave. Looking
ahead, the ridge will shift northward early next week ahead of
another tropical wave that will be approaching the area.

$$
DELGADO
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