[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132240
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jul 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Expiring Atlantic Gale Warning: As of 1800 UTC, Invest Area AL94
was located just north of the discussion area at 32.0N 48.4W. The
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb and maximum sustained winds
are near 35 kts. While the Ocean Prediction Center has an active
gale warning for this system, earlier scatterometer pass found
evidence that gale force winds extend south of 31N on the SE
quadrant of the low. The gale force winds are ending for this
system. Seas still continue to be 12-14 ft. Seas in excess of 8 ft
extend as far south as 27N. Scattered moderate convection is
observed N of 27N between 42W and 49W. Strong southerly winds
extend as far south as 27N between 43W and 47W. This invest area
currently has a medium chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone over the next 48 hours and the next 7 days. However the
gale warning is expiring at 21 UTC as the system slowly moves off
to the north. Seas will also begin to subside overnight and drop
below 8 ft by Fri night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 33W from 16N to
02N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 06N to 11N between 31W and
38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 51W from 17N to
03N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are noted from 10N
to 13N between 50W and 52W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends from the coast of Haiti
near 21N74W to the coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 16N to 22N between 72W and
78W, primarily in the Windward Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 16N16W
to 11N27W to 11N44W. The ITCZ continues from 11N44W to 10N50W and
from 09N53W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Outside of the
convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 27W and 32W and from
08N to 11N between 54W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is moving NW across the Bay of Campeche.
Otherwise, high pressure continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico.
In the western Gulf, winds are moderate to locally fresh from the
SE-S with seas to 4 ft. In the eastern Gulf, anticyclonic winds
are light to gentle around a 1017 mb high centered near 27N86W.
Seas are 1-3 ft east of 90W.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters, through early next week, while a trough will develop over
the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern
will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of
the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

For details about convection in the Caribbean Sea, please see the
Tropical Wave section above.

The standard gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean Sea is supporting moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds across the majority of the basin. Strong
winds are noted north of Hispaniola, enhanced by the approaching
tropical wave. Strong winds are noted in the south- central
Caribbean and south of Hispaniola. Seas are 5-8 ft in the eastern
and central basin, and 3-4 ft in the NW basin.

For the forecast, a tropical wave that extends from the Windward
Passage to NW Colombia will move across the remainder of the
Caribbean through Sun. Active weather accompanies this wave N of
16N between 70W and 76W. Another tropical wave will move across
the Windward Islands Sat afternoon, and enter the southeastern
that afternoon. It will move across the rest of the southeastern
Caribbean through Sun night and across the western Caribbean Mon
and Mon night. The passage of the tropical waves will modulate
fresh to strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean through
the period. Winds may briefly reach gale-force in the Gulf of
Venezuela Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the special features section for information
Invest area AL94 and the expiring gale warning in the central
subtropical Atlantic.

A surface trough near Florida is supporting scattered moderate
convection from 24N to 28N between 76W and 80W. Otherwise, weak
ridging along 22-27N is the dominate feature in the western and
central Atlantic. Winds are generally moderate or less, except for
fresh to strong easterlies north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico in
addition to the strong to near gale winds associated with Invest
Area AL94. Seas are generally 3-5 ft outside of the direct impacts
from this system. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between
the Azores high and lower pressure over NW Africa is supporting
moderate to fresh NE winds, with strong funneling between the
Canary Islands. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist
northeast of the Bahamas through Sun. Farther south, the northern
end of a tropical wave will move westward across the waters south
of 22N through Fri. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough
seas south of 22N both ahead of and following the tropical wave.
Looking ahead, the ridge will shift northward early next week
ahead of another tropical wave that will be approaching the area.

$$
AReinhart
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