[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 06N to 19N, moving
westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ from 09N to 12N
between 37W and 43W. Resent ASCAT data reveal fresh winds in
association with this wave. Seas of 8 to 9 ft follow the wave
based on altimeter data. Looking ahead, this wave is forecast to
bring an increase in winds and seas across the waters just E of
the Leeward Islands on Tue, and over the NE Caribbean on Wed.

A tropical wave is along 58W from 09N to 19N, moving westward at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the northern end of the
wave axis.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 69W/70W, and extends from east of Dominican Republic to
west Venezuela. The wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection east of the wave
axis continues to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Island.
Convection is on increase over Dominican Republic and adjacent
coastal waters. Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted on the E side
of the wave axis. Moisture associated with this feature will spread
over Hispaniola today increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

A tropical wave is over the central Bay of Campeche and extends southward
into the EPAC region. The wave is helping to induce moderate to isolated
strong convection across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Further discussion
about this tropical wave will be found in the Eastern Pacific Tropical
Weather Discussion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W, then continues SW to near 11N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 11N20W to 09N40W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 10N between 45W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf
region. A surface trough is over the eastern Bay of Campeche.
This trough usually develops over the Yucatan Peninsula during the
evening hours and moves westward across the Bay of Campeche
through the morning hours and dissipate. Recent scatterometer data
indicate an area of moderate to fresh winds in association with
this trough, covering the waters from 19N to 23N between 88W and
93W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevail.
Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft over the western Gulf, with highest
seas near the trough axis, and 1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf. A
small area of showers and thunderstorms is noted over the SE Gulf
just N of the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and move offshore. Under this weather pattern, moderate
to fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An active tropical wave is reaching Hispaniola. Please see the
Tropical Wave section above for more details. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are still noted behind the wave axis over the
eastern Caribbean. Similar convective activity is also noted over
the NW Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian
low is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are observed elsewhere based on satellite derived wind data
data, except in the lee of Cuba, and between eastern Cuba and Jamaica
where winds are mainly light. Seas are 6-8 ft in the south-central
Caribbean, with highest seas near the coast of Colombia, and 4 to
6 ft elsewhere, with the exception of 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected
over the central Caribbean through Tue. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then mainly
moderate to fresh winds prevail. Generally moderate winds and seas
will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is forecast
to bring an increase in winds and seas across the waters E of the
Leeward Islands on Tue, and over the NE Caribbean on Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1026 mb located SW of the Azores near 32N33W
dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. The associated ridge
extends westward toward the central Bahamas and South Florida.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are between the western periphery of
the ridge and a broad area of low pressure off the SE of United
States. These winds are affecting the waters N of 27N and W of 70W
based on scatterometer data. Seas are 3 to 5 ft within this area
of winds. the pressure gradient between the aforementioned high
pressure and lower pressure over W Africa, supports fresh to
locally strong northerly winds across the coast of Morocco and
Mauritania. Mainly moderate to fresh trade winds are seen across
the tropical Atlantic while gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere with the exception of light to gentle winds across the
ridge axis. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from CIMSS shows African
dust reaching the Lesser Antilles. An upper-level low spinning
near 24N54W is generating some shower activity.

For the forecast W of 55W, A ridge will remain in place while a trough
persist off the Carolina and Georgia coasts. The pressure gradient
between these two features will support moderate to fresh SW winds
north of 27N, increasing briefly to fresh to strong speeds today
mainly across the waters N of 29N between 65W and 74W. Moderate to
locally fresh E trade winds are expected south of 22N, occasionally
pulsing to 25 kt off Hispaniola through mid- week. Light to gentle
winds will persist elsewhere along the ridge axis.

$$
GR
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