[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W from 07N
to 19N, moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are west of the wave to 42W and from 09N to
13N. Resent ASCAT data reveals fresh winds in association with
this wave.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W from 09N
to 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection
is seen in association with this wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave has it axis along 69W from inland
Venezuela to 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection east of the wave have
affected Puerto Rico and the U.S./UK Virgin Island through the
night. Resent ASCAT data reveals fresh to strong winds along the
strongest convection, just south of Puerto Rico. Expect for this
activity to linger into Sun morning as moisture remains at quite
high levels in the eastern Caribbean.

A tropical wave is just along the coasts of Campeche and it
reaches southward to the eastern Pacific near 06N, moving westward
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the
interior portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa south of
Senegal to 10N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 12N36W and resumes at 11N38W through 08N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ
between 45W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure ridge axis that extends from the Atlantic
across the Straits of Florida has changed little. Its associated
gradient is allowing for generally gentle to locally moderate
anticyclonic flow over the basin. Seas are in the range of
2-4 ft seas, except for slightly higher seas of 3-5 ft in the
central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen over the Campeche Bay in association with
a tropical wave and a surface through. Please see the Tropical
Wave section for more information.


For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and move offshore. Under this weather pattern, moderate
to fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An active tropical wave is currently affecting Puerto Rico and the
U.S/UK Virgin Islands. For more details about the convection
associated with this wave, please see the Tropical Wave section
above.

Fresh trades are noted in the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail in the remainder of the basin, with 3-6 ft seas.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen in the offshore waters
south of eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse
across the central Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight
and again Sun night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds prevail.
Generally moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. Looking
ahead, a tropical wave is forecast to bring an increase in winds
and seas across the waters E of the Leeward Islands on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper level trough is producing isolated showers and
thunderstorms from the Florida coast to 29N64W. A Tropical Upper-
Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is identified on water vapor imagery
near 26N54W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring
north of 28N between 51W-56W in association with the TUTT. A
tropical wave is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms
in the Central Atlantic. For more information about this tropical
wave please see the Tropical Wave section above.

Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge centered near the Azores
continues to dominate the tropical Atlantic, as does a broad area
of dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in the deep tropics south
of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds persist south of 20N along
with seas of 6-8 ft, and gentle to locally moderate trades persist
north of 20N with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate the
forecast waters while a trough persist off the Carolina and
Georgia coasts. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SW
winds north of 27N, and moderate E trade winds south of 22N,
occasionally pulsing to 25 kt off Hispaniola through early next
week. Light to gentle winds will persist elsewhere along the ridge
axis.

$$
KRV
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