[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jul 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic near the W coast
of Africa. Satellite imagery and precipitable water products
suggests that this wave is still involved with the cyclonic
monsoonal circulation there, and has not shifted westward away
from the coast yet. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 06.5N to 12N E of 24W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 39W from 09N to
19N moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
observed at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 51W-53W, south of
16N moving west near 15 kt. A broad area of scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed with this wave, south of
13N between 51W and 55W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 82W south of 19N and into
the far eastern tropical Pacific, moving west at 15 kt. This wave
is interacting with upper level low pressure over the NW
Caribbean and producing scattered moderate to strong convection S
of 22N between 79W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 09N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N34W to 09N51W.
Convection with these features is described above with the
tropical waves.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered across the NE Gulf near
27N86W. The pressure gradient between this weak high and a
surface trough along the coast in the Veracruz, Mexico area is
producing moderate E to SE winds across the western Gulf, W of
90W, and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Earlier altimeter data across the
western Gulf showed a few isolated spots of 6 ft seas. Light winds
and seas 3 ft or less prevail across the eastern Gulf. A low
level southerly wind surge is observed in satellite imagery across
the coastal waters of Mexico and into SE Texas, where scattered
squalls and moderate to strong convection are moving northward
across the waters N of 22N and W of 90W. This activity is being
supported by an upper trough extending from the Lower Mississippi
Valley across Texas and into NE Mexico. Elsewhere, widely
scattered cells of moderate convection continue across the
nearshore coastal waters, in the Florida Big Bend, and offshore of
the FL- GA border.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula each evening as a diurnal trough
develops and moves offshore. Weak high pressure situated over the
eastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight
seas elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Large clusters of moderate to strong convection in the NW and SW
Caribbean are primarily associated with a tropical wave described
in the Tropical Waves section above. A strong low level wind surge
follows this tropical wave in the basin, with 20-25 kt winds
extending from the wave axis eastward to near 69W. Buoy data show
that seas 8 to 10 ft seas are covering a large portion of the
central Caribbean S of 17N. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail W
of the wave axis along 80W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft, and
possibly higher near convection. A deep layered upper trough
extends from the central Atlantic SW through the Bahamas and into
the NW Caribbean, and is supporting convection ahead of the
tropical wave. This upper level feature will continue to support
active convection with the tropical wave through Fri.

For the forecast, the tropical wave along 81W will move west
across the western Caribbean into Fri night. Fresh to strong winds
and rough seas will follow the tropical wave mainly across the
central Caribbean, through tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Sat night. Winds
and seas over the central Caribbean will diminish slightly Fri
through Sat. Another tropical wave will enter the eastern
Caribbean Fri night and reach the central Caribbean Sat night. The
area of fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean will
expand again behind this tropical wave, Sun night into Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb low pressure near 28N59W disrupts overall high pressure
dominating the basin. Widely scattered to scattered moderate
convection has developed this morning E of the low, from 24N to
30N between 54W and 76W. This convection is occurring across the
SE periphery of a pair of upper level low centers anchoring an
Atlantic TUTT that is strung out from the central Atlantic SW
through the Bahamas, and will maintain unstable conditions into
tonight. W of the surface low, light to gentle anticyclonic flow
generally prevails W of 60W, where seas are 2-4 ft, except 4-6 ft
N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. A broad zone of thick SAL
dominates the waters N of the Greater Antilles to 25N and between
60W and 75W.

A 1028 mb Azores high is located near 34N37W and extends a ridge
south and west that dominates the remainder of the Atlantic.
Trade winds E of 60W are generally gentle to moderate with areas
of fresh winds near the tropical wave along 51-53W, and S of the
ITCZ between 30W and 50W. Seas are generally 5-7 ft across the
tropical Atlantic. A typical tight pressure gradient between the
high and lower pressure across NW Africa is producing fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds within 30 nm of the African coast
from 15N to 28N, where seas are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak Bermuda High will maintain a
weak pressure gradient and lead to gentle winds across most of
the area into tonight. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will
prevail into early next week, locally strong N of Hispaniola
during the late afternoon and evening hours today through Sat. The
high pressure ridge will shift south Sat night, ahead of a series
of weak troughs moving between northeast Florida and Bermuda
through Sun. These troughs will produce fresh SW winds across the
northern waters Sat through Mon.

$$
AReinhart
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