[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jul 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic near the W coast
of Africa. Satellite imagery and precipitable water products
suggests that this wave is still involved with the cyclonic
monsoonal circulation there, and has not shifted westward away
from the coast yet. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 06.5N to 12N E of 23W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 37W from 09N to
19N moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
observed at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 51W-53W, south of
16N moving west near 15 kt. A broad area of scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed with this wave, south of
12.5N between 51W and 57W, and south of 10N between 43W and 51W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 80W south of 20N and into
the far eastern tropical Pacific, moving west at 15 kt. This wave
is interacting with upper level low pressure over the NW Caribbean
and producing scattered moderate to strong convection from 09N to
19N between 75W and 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18.5N16W to 09N27W. The ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 06N47W to
08N51W, then resumes from 09.5N55W to the coast of Guyana near
08N59.5W. Convection near these features is described above with
the tropical waves.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high pressure is centered across the NE Gulf near
27.5N87W. The pressure gradient between this weak high and a
surface trough along the coast in the Veracruz, Mexico area is
producing moderate E to SE winds across the western Gulf, W of
90W, and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Recent altimeter data across the
western Gulf showed a few isolated spots of 6 ft seas. Light winds
and seas 3 ft or less prevail across the eastern Gulf. A low
level southerly wind surge is observed in satellite imagery across
the coastal waters of Mexico and into SE Texas, where scattered
squalls and moderate to strong convection are moving northward
across the waters W of 95W and N of 21N. This activity is being
supported by an upper trough extending from the Lower Mississippi
Valley across Texas and into NE Mexico. Elsewhere, widely
scattered cells of moderate convection have recently developed
across the nearshore coastal waters, in the Florida Big Bend, and
offshore of the FL-GA border.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse
north and west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a diurnal
trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, weak high pressure
will persist over the eastern Gulf and support gentle to moderate
breezes and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Large clusters of moderate to strong convection in the NW and SW
Caribbean are primarily associated with a tropical wave described
in the Tropical Waves section above. A strong low level wind surge
follows this tropical wave in the basin, with 20-25 kt winds
extending from the wave axis eastward to near 67W. Buoy and
altimeter data show that peak seas had built to 12 ft well
offshore of the coast of Colombia, and 9 to 11 ft seas covering a
large portion of the central Caribbean S of 17N. Moderate to
locally fresh SE winds prevail W of the wave axis along 80W, where
seas are 3 to 6 ft, and possibly higher near convection. A deep
layered upper trough extends from the central Atlantic SW through
the Bahamas and into the NW Caribbean, and is supporting convection
ahead of the tropical wave. This upper level feature will continue
to support active convection with the tropical wave through Fri.

For the forecast, the tropical wave over the central Caribbean
will move west across the western Caribbean into Fri night. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas will follow the tropical wave mainly
across the central Caribbean, through tonight. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Sat
night. Winds and seas over the central Caribbean will diminish
slightly Fri through Sat. Another tropical wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean Fri night and reach the central Caribbean Sat
night. The area of fresh to strong trades over the central
Caribbean will expand again behind this tropical wave, Sun into
Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb low pressure near 28N59W disrupts overall high pressure
dominating the basin. Widely scattered to scattered moderate
convection has developed this morning E of the low, from 26N to
30N between 45W and 56W. This convection is occurring across the
SE periphery of a pair of upper level low centers anchoring an
Atlantic TUTT that is strung out from the central Atlantic SW
through the Bahamas, and will maintain unstable conditions into
tonight. W of the surface low, a weak 1021 mb high center is
located near 26N64W and extends a broad and weak ridge to the
Bahamas. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow generally prevails W of
60W, where seas are 204 ft, except 4-6 ft N of Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico. A broad zone of thick SAL dominates the waters N of
the Greater Antilles, to 25N and between 60W and 75W.

A 1027 mb Azores high is located near 35N37W and extends a ridge
south and west that dominates the remainder of the Atlantic.
Trade winds E of 60W are generally gentle to moderate with areas
of fresh winds near the tropical wave along 51-53W, and S of the
ITCZ between 30W and 50W. Seas are generally 5-7 ft across the
tropical Atlantic. A typical tight pressure gradient between the
high and lower pressure across NW Africa is producing fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds within 30 nm of the African coast
from 15N to 28N, where seas are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak Bermuda High will maintain a
weak pressure gradient and lead to gentle winds across most of
the area into tonight. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will
prevail into early next week, locally strong N of Hispaniola
during the late afternoon and evening hours through Sat. The high
pressure ridge will shift south Sat night, ahead of a series of
weak troughs moving between northeast Florida and Bermuda through
Sun. These troughs will produce fresh SW winds across the northern
waters Sat through Mon.

$$
Stripling
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