[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jul 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W from 17N southward
to near 06N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 07N to 14N between 19W and 23W.

A well-defined western Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W from
14N southward to Guyana, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 16N between
54W and 64W. Fresh to strong winds are found along the wave with
seas up to 10 ft. This wave will move across the Lesser Antilles
tonight, increasing moisture and instability over the islands.

A well-defined tropical wave in the Caribbean is along 81W from
18N southward to Panama, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 77W
and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W and extends SW to 12N20W. The ITCZ continues from
12N20W to 05N36W to 06N49W. No significant convection is depicted
at this time in association with either the monsoon trough or the
ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends along
11N from Costa Rica to Colombia. This feature is interacting with
a tropical wave leading to scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection. For more information please see the Tropical Wave
section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the eastern and northern Gulf;
however, mainly dry conditions prevail across the rest of the Gulf
waters. High pressure centered just offshore Florida Panhandle
continues to dominate the sensible weather. This is leading to
mostly light to gentle S to SE winds and seas of 3 ft or less.
Moderate winds are noted off the northwest coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail into mid-
week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and again Tue night as a
diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Expect active
thunderstorms across the SW Gulf Tue through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
above for details on convection in the Caribbean.

The difference in pressure between high pressure mainly N of 25N
and low pressure centered along the Colombian coast is leading to
fresh to strong E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in the south-
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail in the
northwest Caribbean with seas 4 to 6 ft. S of 12N, winds are
light to gentle, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered thunderstorms
are noted across the Greater Antilles.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the east
and central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong tonight
through Wed night with and behind a tropical wave that is moving
across the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. Expect squalls and
scattered thunderstorms to accompany this tropical wave tonight
through Tue night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
elsewhere during the forecast period, while fresh to strong trades
persist across south central portions.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough axis extend from E of Bermuda to NE of
Hispaniola. It is inducing scattered convection N of 25N between
57W and 66W. Convection in the the deep tropical Atlantic is
being generated by a tropical wave. Please see the Tropical Wave
section for more information.

A dominant ridge of high pressure sprawling across most waters N
of 23N is leading to light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
for these waters. Some moderate to locally fresh winds and seas
of up to 6 ft are impacting waters near the Canary Islands. To the
S of 23N, moderate to fresh winds are depicted in the waters W of
30W with seas 6-8 ft. E of 30W, winds are light to gentle to the
African coast with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak Bermuda High will maintain a
weak pressure gradient, and lead to light gentle winds across
most of the area into mid-week. S of 22N, winds will increase to
moderate to fresh starting tonight, then continue through Thu,
occurring with and behind an active tropical wave moving through
the Caribbean.

$$
AReinhart
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