[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave was repositioned based on wave
diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave is now located near
21W from 20N southward to near 07N. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen on the right axis of the wave.

A well-defined western Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W from
15N to Suriname, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted S of 14N between 54W and
61W, including northern Suriname. Moderate to fresh winds are
found along the wave with seas up to 9 ft. This wave will move
across the Lesser Antilles later today and tonight, increasing
moisture and instability over the islands.

A well-defined tropical wave in the Caribbean was repositioned
based on wave diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave is now
located near 79W from 10N to Panama. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted near the coasts of Panama,
Costa Rica, Honduras, and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Senegal and extends
SW through to 11N25W. The ITCZ continues from 11N25W across 06N33W
to 06N49W. No significant convection is depicted at this time in
association with either the monsoon trough or the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends along
10N from Panama to Colombia. This feature is interacting with a
tropical wave leading to scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection. For more information please see the Tropical Wave
section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Mainly dry conditions prevail across the Gulf waters. High
pressure centered just offshore Florida Panhandle continues to
dominate the sensible weather. This is leading to light to gentle
S to SE winds and seas of 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail into mid-
week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and again Tue night as a
diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Expect active
thunderstorms across the SW Gulf Tue through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
above for details on convection in the Caribbean. The difference
in pressure between high pressure mainly N of 25N and low
pressure centered along the Colombian coast is leading to fresh to
locally strong E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in the south-
central Caribbean. To the north and east, the basin is having
moderate to fresh trades with seas of 4 to 6 ft. In the western
basin, mainly moderate winds prevail with 3 to 6 ft seas. Yet, S
of 12N, winds are light to gentle and variable at times, with
seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the
central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong
tonight through Wed night with and behind a tropical wave that is
approaching the Lesser Antilles today. Expect squalls and
scattered thunderstorms to accompany this tropical wave. Gentle to
moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast
period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough axis extend from E of Bermuda to NE of
Hispaniola. It is inducing scattered convection N of 25N between
58W and 65W. Convection in the the deep tropical Atlantic is
being generated by a tropical wave. Please see the Tropical Wave
section for more information.

A dominant ridge of high pressure sprawling across most waters N
of 23N is leading to light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
for these waters. Some moderate winds and seas of up to 6 ft are
impacting waters near the Canary Islands. To the S, light to
gentle winds are depicted in the waters E of 28W. The Tropical
Atlantic waters are having mainly fresh trades with seas of 5 to 7
ft. Please see the Tropical Wave sections for winds and seas
associated with the tropical wave in the western Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak Bermuda High will maintain a
weak pressure gradient, and lead to light gentle winds across
most of the area into mid-week. S of 22N, winds will increase to
moderate to fresh starting tonight, then continue through mid
week, associated with an active tropical wave moving through the
Caribbean.

$$
KRV
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