[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271135
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:

Winds will remain at minimal gale force near 28N38W through this
morning between a 1010 mb low pressure centered near 22N42W and
a 1041 mb high pressure centered over the north-central Atlantic.
Seas will peak at 11 to 14 ft in this area as well. Winds and
seas will gradually diminish this evening through Sat as the low
weakens and shifts westward. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information
on this gale warning.

Caribbean Gale Warning:

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower
pressure over Colombia is causing easterly gales and seas of 10
to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia early this morning. Conditions
will improve by mid morning but are expected to reach gale force
again tonight and Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone just
south of Freetown to 05N16W. An ITCZ then continues from 05N16W
across 02N30W to near the mouth of the Amazon River, Brazil.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia coast, and up to 100 nm along either side of the
ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 mb high pressure over central Texas is building
southeastward into the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2
to 4 ft are present at the northwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh
NE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are found at the southeast Gulf,
including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate northerly winds
and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere. No significant
convection is evident across the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, the cold front has moved into the Bahamas and
Caribbean Sea. A high pressure shifting eastward across the Gulf
States will introduce fresh to strong easterly winds across the
northwestern and southern Gulf, including the Strait of Florida
this evening through Sat night. The next cold front should enter
the northern Gulf on Sun, bringing fresh to locally strong
southerly winds for the northeastern Gulf; then stall and
dissipate on Mon. Afterward, gentle to moderate easterly winds
will prevail for the entire Gulf through midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more information
about a Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

A modest stationary front reaches south-southwestward from the
western end of Cuba to near the coast of Belize. Scattered showers
are noted up to 60 nm along either side of this feature. Outside
the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale ENE winds and seas of 8
to 10 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong
ENE to E trades with 5 to 8 ft seas exist at the north-central
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft
prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, near-gale to gale ENE winds at the south-
central Caribbean will decrease to between fresh and strong by
noon. They are going to pulse back to gale force this evening, and
Sat evening. Meanwhile a cold front will progress eastward across
western Cuba through Sat, then gradually dissipate near central
Cuba Sun evening. This feature is expected to cause fresh to
strong with locally near-gale easterly winds near the Windward
Passage and south of Cuba and Hispaniola late this afternoon
though Mon. A stationary front continues from the cold front to
near the Belize coast, causing showers and thunderstorms through
Sat before dissipating by Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a
a Gale Warning near 28N38W.

A cold front stretches from northwest of Bermuda across 31N69W
across the NW Bahamas to northwestern Cuba. Patchy showers are
seen near and up to 70 nm northwest of the front. A pronounced
upper-level low near 27N41W is triggering scattered moderate
convection north of 23N between 30W and 42W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to E winds and
seas of 7 to 11 ft in northerly swell are seen north of 21N
between the northwest African coast and 58W, including the Canary
Islands. Moderate NW winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are found behind
the cold front north of the Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and
seas at 3 to 6 ft are present north of 25N between 58W and the
cold front. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
occurring from 16N to 25N between 58W and the Lesser Antilles.
Gentle to moderate NNE to ENE trades with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will be from 31N66W
to western Cuba this evening, then stall from 31N62W to central
Cuba on Sat before dissipating Sun. A tight pressure gradient
across the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and
building seas across the Bahamas, including the Great Bahama Bank
and north of the Windward passage late tonight through Sun.
Southerly flow will increase offshore from northeastern Florida by
Sun night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the
western Atlantic on Mon.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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