[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:

Winds will reach minimal gale force near 28N38W through this
morning between 1010 mb low pressure centered near 22N42W and 1041
mb high pressure centered over the north-central Atlantic. Seas
will build to 13 ft in this area as well. Winds and seas will
diminish by this evening as the low weakens and shifts westward.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more information on this gale warning.

Caribbean Gale Warning:

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower
pressure over Colombia is causing easterly gales and sea heights
of up to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia this morning. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 04N20W to near
the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W and 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building over the coast of Texas following a cold
front that moved through the Gulf yesterday and is currently
moving across the eastern Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong N
to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident over Straits of
Florida, the far southeast Gulf, and the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere. No
significant convection is evident across the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually improve today as
the front moves across the northwest Caribbean Sea, followed by
high pressure. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will
set- up this weekend in the northwest Gulf in response to the next
cold front approaching the coast of Texas. This front is expected
to move into the far northern Gulf Sun and Sun night, and stall
along the northern Gulf through Mon night. As high pressure moves
eastward into the western Atlantic, expect fresh to strong east
winds across the Straits of Florida and the far southeast Gulf
Sat and Sat night and diminish Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more information
about a Gale Warning that is near the coast of Colombia this
morning.

Near-gale force winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are noted south of 15N
to the coast of Colombia between 70W and 80W. Fresh trades and 5
to 7 ft are noted elsewhere over the eastern, central and
southwest Caribbean. A cold front extends from far western Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 7 ft are noted over the
Yucatan Channel behind the front. Gentle to moderate NE winds and
3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean.
No significant convection is evident across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale trade winds will continue
over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the
forecast period. Minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night near
the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period.
A cold front entering the the Yucatan Channel will move across
the NW Caribbean through Fri, then stall and dissipate by Sat
night. Strong NE to E winds are expected to affect the Windward
Passage and Lee of Cuba Fri night through Sun night. Similar winds
will resume in the Windward Passage Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a
low pressure that will induce gales near 28N38W today.

A cold front stretches from 31N71W to the NW Bahamas and into the
Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas follow the front over open waters. Farther west, a broad area
of fresh to strong winds and rough seas are evident on the
periphery of the developing gale center near 22N42W, covering most
of the Atlantic from 20N to 31N east of 55W. Gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will continue to move southeast
through Sat, then stall and weaken from 31N55W to the northwest
Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient across the area
will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across
the Great Bahama Bank, the Straits of Florida and the Windward
passage late Fri night through Sun night. Southerly flow will increase
E of NE Florida by Sun night ahead of the next cold front forecast
to enter the western Atlantic on Mon.

$$
Christensen
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