[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
06N11W to 03S23W. The ITCZ axis extends from 03S23W to the coast
of Brazil at 03S40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 01N to 07N and E of 29W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 06N between 33W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Punta Gorda, Florida to 1016
mb low pressure located in the central Gulf near 26N88W. A warm
front extends from the low to a 1012 mb low pressure near
Brownsville, Texas at 27N96W. Scattered thunderstorms have
developed along the stationary front mainly E of 86W. A surface
trough extends from the western low south-southeast to 24N98W.
Fresh to strong NE-E winds are being reported by in-situ
observations in the NW Gulf north of the front and west of 90W,
with seas of 6-8 ft. Mainly moderate NE-E winds and 2-5 ft seas
are north of the front and east of 90W. High pressure ridging
prevails south of the front over the southern Gulf through the
Straits of Florida. Gentle winds are south of the front under the
ridging, except moderate to fresh just offshore the northern
Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are mainly 1-3 ft south of the front.

For the forecast, the low pressure will lift northward through
the weekend. Strong winds and rough seas are expected through
today in the northern and western Gulf waters as the low pressure
and associated frontal boundary meanders in these areas. By Sun,
a cold front will push eastward across the Gulf with fresh to
strong winds and moderate seas following it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades are in the south-central Caribbean
including the Gulf of Venezuela, due to a locally tight pressure
gradient between 1010 mb low pressure over northern Colombia and
high pressure ridging north of the basin. Seas are 8-11 ft in
this area outside of the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh trades are
elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean south of 18N and
across the eastern Caribbean, with seas of 5-7 ft across these
areas, except 3-5 ft west of 80W. Gentle to moderate trades and
seas of 2-5 ft are north of 18N. Otherwise, deep layered dry air
maintains fair weather basin-wide.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the
south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through at
least Wed night. Winds could approach near gale-force closer to
the Colombia coast. Moderate to fresh winds will also pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68W to 27N79W then it becomes
stationary to 27N80W. Fresh to strong winds and 7-10 ft seas are
north of 30N between 60W and 70W, with moderate to fresh winds and
seas of 4-7 ft elsewhere on either side of the front north of 27N
and west of 58W. High pressure ridging is south of the front
along about 25N. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are south of
the front and west of 60W, locally moderate south of 22N. Seas are
4-6 ft in NE-E swell south of the front and west of 60W.

To the east, a 1018 mb low is near 31N43W with a weakening cold
front extending from the low to 23N51W. A 1020 mb is centered near
32N38W with surface trough extending from the low to 24N38W.
Scattered showers are noted within about 120 nm east of this low
and trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail within 150 nm in the
east semicircle of the lows, along with 7-8 ft seas. Ridging
dominates the majority of the remainder of the waters east of 60W,
with gentle to moderate winds north of 20N and west of 25W, and
moderate to fresh trades south of 20N. Fresh to strong NE winds
are north of 20N and east of about 25W due to a locally tight
pressure gradient. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail east of 60W, except 8-11
ft in the area of fresh to strong NE winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front moving off the
Florida coast with moderate to fresh winds behind it and fresh to
strong winds ahead of it, along with moderate to rough seas can
be expected along the front as it propagates eastward through the
weekend and staying N of 27N. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop off the Florida coast on Sun ahead of another cold front
that is expected to push off Sun night into Mon morning. Fresh to
strong W to NW winds will prevail behind the front with building
seas.

$$
ERA
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