[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jan 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
the border of Guinea and Sierra Leone at 09N13W to 03S21W to
02S26W. The ITCZ axis extends from 02S26W to the Equator at 35W to
near the coast of Brazil at 02S43W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 12W and 19W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02S to 03N between 20W and 29W.
Similar convection is noted north of the ITCZ from 03N to 07N
between 42W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Punta Gorda, Florida to 1015
mb low pressure located in the central Gulf near 26N88W to 1012 mb
low pressure near Brownsville, Texas at 26N97W. Scattered
thunderstorms have developed east of the central Gulf low from 25N
to 27.5N between the coast of SW Florida and 88W. A surface trough
extends from the western low south-southeast about 60 nm offshore
of eastern Mexico. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are being reported
by in-situ observations in the NW Gulf north of the front and west
of 90W, with seas of 5-7 ft. Mainly moderate NE-E winds and 2-5 ft
seas are north of the front and east of 90W. High pressure
ridging prevails south of the front over the southern Gulf through
the Straits of Florida. Mainly gentle winds are south of the front
under the ridging, except moderate to fresh just offshore the
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are mainly 1-3 ft south of the
front.

For the forecast, the low pressure will lift northward through
the weekend. Strong winds and rough seas are expected through Sat
in the northern and western Gulf waters as the low pressure and
associated frontal boundary meanders in these areas. By Sun, a
cold front will push eastward across the Gulf with fresh to strong
winds and moderate seas following it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades are in the south-central Caribbean
including the Gulf of Venezuela, due to a locally tight pressure
gradient between 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia and
high pressure ridging north of the basin. Seas are 7-10 ft in this
area outside of the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh trades are elsewhere
in the central and western Caribbean south of 18N and across the
eastern Caribbean, with seas of 5-7 ft across these areas, except
3-5 ft west of 80W. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 2-5 ft
are north of 18N. Otherwise, deep layered dry air maintains fair
weather basin-wide.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the
south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through at
least Wed night. Winds could approach near gale-force closer to
the Colombia coast. Moderate to fresh winds will also pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from west of Bermuda through 31N71W to near
Fort Pierce, Florida where it stalls. Fresh to strong winds and
7-10 ft seas are north of 30N between 60W and 70W, with moderate
to fresh winds and seas of 4-7 ft elsewhere on either side of the
front north of 27N and west of 60W. Some showers are possible
within about 60 nm ahead of the front. High pressure ridging is
south of the front along about 24N/25N. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are south of the front and west of 60W, locally
moderate south of 22N. Seas are 4-6 ft in NE-E swell south of the
front and west of 60W.

To the east, several weak features are present. A 1020 mb low is
near 27N38W with moderate to fresh winds within 150 nm in the east
semicircle, along with 7-8 ft seas. Similar winds are within 150
nm in the SW quadrant of the low per a recent ASCAT scatterometer
pass. A trough extends from 31N36W through the low to near
22N40W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible within
about 120 nm east of the trough and low. A dissipating cold front
extends from low pressure near 31N44W to 24N51W continuing as a
dissipating stationary front to 22.5N59W. Scattered showers are
possible near the front. Ridging dominates the majority of the
remainder of the waters east of 60W, with gentle to moderate winds
north of 20N and west of 25W, and moderate to fresh trades south
of 20N. Fresh to strong NE winds are north of 20N and east of
about 25W due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas of 6-9 ft
prevail east of 60W, except 8-11 ft in the area of fresh to
strong NE winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front moving off the
Florida coast with moderate to fresh winds behind it and fresh to
strong winds ahead of it, along with moderate to rough seas can
be expected along the front as it propagates eastward through the
weekend and staying N of 27N. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop off the Florida coast on Sun ahead of another cold front
that is expected to push off Sun night into Mon morning. Fresh to
strong W to NW winds will prevail behind the front with building
seas.

$$
Lewitsky
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