[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160834
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N57W to the
Virgin Islands. Gale force winds east of the front and north of
28N will diminish this morning. Seas are peaking near 16 ft in
this area. Both winds and seas will gradually decrease the next
couple of days.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
Both products are issued by the National Hurricane Center.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 04N07W to 03N14W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N14W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03S to 06N between 14W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the area. Fresh to strong southerly
return flow prevails over the waters west of 90W, with light to
gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the NW
Gulf, and 4-6 ft elsewhere W of 90W. East of 90W, seas are in the
2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, strong S return flow in the western Gulf will
persist through tonight before diminishing. Southerly winds will
freshen across much of the Gulf Tue night and Wed ahead of a cold
front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Wed night. The
front will extend from southeast Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico by
Thu morning. Fresh N winds are likely behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating frontal boundary extends from the Virgin Islands to
the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are found over the
central Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and western Caribbean,
with 2-4 ft seas over the eastern and far NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate over the NE waters
by midweek. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south-
central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through late this
week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras
beginning Tue evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on a West Atlantic Gale
Warning.

A cold front extends from 31N57W to the Virgin Islands. Aside from
the gale force winds, fresh to strong winds are found both ahead
of, and behind, the front N of 25N. Fresh to strong winds are also
found N of 25N and east of 40W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas are in the 10-15 ft range over much of the waters
N of 20N and W of 35W, with seas of 8-12 ft N of 25N and E of 35W.
Elsewhere, seas are in the 6- ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will slowly shift eastward
through midweek before becoming stationary and weakening. Gale
force S winds east of the front will diminish this morning. Seas
of 13 to 16 ft will gradually subside through midweek. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front.

$$
AL
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