[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A cold front is along 31N58W 26N60W, to 18N65W between
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, about 400 nm to the
SE of Bermuda. Expect southerly gale-force winds, and
sea heights that range from 11 feet to 16 feet, from
28N northward between 55W and 59W, to the east of the
cold front. The gale-force wind conditions will last
for the next 12 hours or so. The 24-hour rainfall total
in inches, for the period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, is
0.44 in Bermuda. The sea heights in general have been
ranging from 9 feet to 16 feet from the cold front north-
ward and northwestward.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 03N,
to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W, to the Equator along
25W, to 01S30W, to the Equator along 35W, and continuing along
the Equator to 47W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is from 02N southward between 43W and 47W, and from 03N to 06N
between 46W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.
A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center
that is just off the coast of the Florida Big Bend, to the
coast of Mexico along 20N. Strong to near gale-force SE winds
are from 25N to 29N from 92W westward. Moderate to fresh winds
are elsewhere from 87W westward. Gentle to moderate winds are
in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range
from 6 feet to 9 feet from 24N to the middle Texas Gulf coast
from 93W westward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet
in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Strong S return flow in the western Gulf will persist
through Mon night before diminishing. Southerly winds will
freshen across much of the Gulf Tue night and Wed ahead of
a cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Wed
night. The front will extend from southeast Louisiana to
Tampico, Mexico by Thu morning. Fresh N winds are likely
behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front passes through 18N65W between
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, to 15N70W, to the central
coast of Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within
360 nm on either side of the front, and in the NW corner of
the area.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from the Windward
Passage eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet
in the coastal waters of Cuba, and between the eastern part of
Honduras and the NE part of the Yucatan Peninsula. The sea
heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea. Strong NE winds are within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 73W and 77W. Mostly fresh to some strong winds
are in the remainder of the central one-third of the area, and
to the NW of the dissipating stationary front in the eastern
one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate winds are in
the remainder of the eastern one-third of the area to the south
of the dissipating front. Moderate to fresh winds are in the
western one-third of the area. The 24-hour rainfall total in
inches, for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, is 0.71 in
Guadeloupe.

A cold front extends from the Anegada Passage to the central
Caribbean. The front will extend from the Virgin Islands to
15N69W early Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in
the south central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia
through late this week. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras beginning Tue evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for
information about gale-force wind warnings that
are related to the Atlantic Ocean cold front.

The sea heights have been ranging from 10 feet to
15 feet from 28N northward from the cold front eastward.
The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet
in the areas are elsewhere from the line that starts at
28N at the coast of Africa, to 27N26W 15N39W 03N47W, to
03N at the coast of Brazil, northward and northwestward.
The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1042 mb high pressure center is near 40N32W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the
cold front eastward.

A cold front from 31N58W to the Anegada Passage will reach
from near 31N55W to the Virgin Islands early Mon before
becoming stationary and weakening. Gale force S winds will
continue east of the front and north of 27N through tonight,
while strong W winds cover a large area W of the front.
Seas of 13 to 16 ft will gradually early this week. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front.

$$
mt/al
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